Alaskan King Crab Co. · September 2026 Daily Plan
New-customer revenue is distributed by the supplied MLTO target, the brand's measured weekday curve, and the expected efficiency of each calendar phase. The September 1–3 Labor Day peak is calibrated to the August 28–31 forecast reference: $60.7K of daily Order Revenue, equivalent to roughly $58.2K on September's Operating Revenue basis, with a returning-customer skew. The September 16–30 giveaway receives only a minor uplift, while confirmed email/SMS launches create small cohort-specific bumps. The daily schedule is normalized back to the exact scenario totals, so the calendar changes timing—not the committed monthly target.
Three Scenarios
MLTO preserves the exact Statlas revenue forecast supplied and now locks media at $125,000. All scenario revenue targets use Net Sales + Shipping (Operating Revenue). Conservative and Stretch remain exactly as previously approved and are not rebased to the revised MLTO spend level.
Contribution-margin YoY uses September 2025 revenue and media spend at the MLTO 64.65% cost-of-delivery rate because prior-year finance actuals were not supplied.
$634,812 of Operating Revenue stays locked to the supplied forecast. With media reset to $125,000, contribution margin increases to $99,379 and the baseline needs $21,160 of Operating Revenue on $4,167 of media per day.
The previously approved Stretch case remains unchanged. Use it only if the first ten days clear their cumulative Operating Revenue plan and aMER remains at or above the revised 2.89x MLTO level.
The MLTO daily level sits below every recent trailing window
The supplied target is not extrapolating the summer run-rate. It asks for $21,160 of Operating Revenue per day against $23,114–$25,142 across the latest same-day T30/T60/T90 reads.
The MLTO Operating Revenue average is 8.5% below the T30 daily level, 15.8% below T60, and 13.4% below T90. Media is now planned at $4,167 per day, below the recent $4,437–$4,492 range. Holding the supplied revenue target therefore raises the required aMER to 2.89x. That remains inside the recent T30/T60/T90 range while respecting the historical September efficiency dip versus August and the recent upward improvement in new-customer revenue trends.
2.89x sits inside the recent acquisition-efficiency range
MLTO uses New Net Sales + Shipping divided by total media spend. The revised target sits above T90 but below the stronger T30 and T60 reads, while remaining materially ahead of September 2025.
| Basis | Observed aMER | MLTO | Step-down | Interpretation |
|---|
At $125,000 of spend, each 0.10x of aMER is worth roughly $12,500 of new-customer operating revenue. That is the cleanest early-month sensitivity to monitor.
Monday through Thursday carry the plan
The curve is a 50/50 blend of clean evergreen days from September 2025 and July 2026, normalized across the actual September 2026 calendar.
Monday through Thursday carries 28.4% more value per calendar day than Friday through Sunday in the blended curve. Spend follows that shape; Saturdays are protected from flat pacing that would overfund the brand's weakest day.
The promotional flight is confirmed; the rest stays honest
The corrected calendar ends the Labor Day offer on September 3, returns to evergreen on September 4, and runs a low-lift giveaway from September 16 through month-end.
The month in four operating blocks
Window totals and per-day averages update with the scenario selector. Labor Day uses the comparable August sale moment; giveaway windows remain intentionally close to evergreen.
September 2025, day by day
Supermetrics actuals. Coral rows are confirmed 2025 promotional dates from the AKC promotion calendar.
| Date | Day | Window | Operating Rev | NC Op Rev | RC Op Rev | Spend | aMER | AOV |
|---|
September 2026, day by day — MLTO Forecast
All total, new-customer, and returning-customer revenue targets use Net Sales + Shipping—Operating Revenue in the Statlas P&L—so every column reconciles to the supplied aMER and financial plan.
| Date | Day | Window | Operating Rev | NC Op Rev | RC Op Rev | Spend | aMER | AOV |
|---|
What the plan is worth
The MLTO Base preserves the supplied revenue and cost-of-delivery model while incorporating the newly locked $125,000 media budget. Conservative and Stretch remain unchanged from the prior version.
| MLTO Forecast | $ | % Op Rev |
|---|
| Scenario | CM | CM% |
|---|
Priorities
- Open September with the full Labor Day stack. Buy More, Save More and supporting email/SMS need to be live together on September 1; September 1–3 carry the month's highest event-driven RC intensity.
- Pace to the daily target, not the monthly total. Use the scenario toggle and daily table. Two consecutive days more than 20% below cumulative MLTO are a signal; a single soft Saturday is expected.
- Return to evergreen cleanly on September 8. Do not let promotional creative linger and contaminate the efficiency read. The next 13 days establish whether 2.89x aMER is genuinely available.
- Weight spend into the shipping week. Wednesday, Thursday, and Monday are the strongest structural days. Flat daily pacing would overfund Saturday and underfund the order cutoff.
- Use a ten-day gate for Stretch. Increase budget only if cumulative Operating Revenue is on plan, aMER is at least 2.89x, and the returning file is within 10% of its daily target.
Where this plan could be wrong
- The returning file is the principal risk. MLTO requires $273,949 of returning operating revenue, still 13.8% below last September, but meaningfully above the calendar-neutral day-grain floor.
- Labor Day has to pull repeat buyers quickly. The offer now has only three September days to activate the file, so missing the September 1–3 RC plan cannot be hidden inside a longer holiday window.
- The giveaway is intentionally modest. September 16–30 is modeled as an evergreen engagement layer with small email/SMS bumps—not as a second sale peak.
- 2.89x is attainable, but it is no longer the conservative efficiency case. It sits above T90 and below T30/T60, with a lower daily budget than all three windows. Watch marginal efficiency, not the blended number alone.
- No late-month sale is assumed. The final ten days are an evergreen shipping/CRM push. If the business adds a confirmed offer, reflight the daily weights before using the table operationally.
- Cost of delivery is the hard ceiling. At 64.65% of operating revenue, every point of COD is worth about $6,348 of contribution margin in the Base case.