Alaskan King Crab Co. · Daily Spend Plan
Updated Sep 26 for your Sep 25 promo plan
Revenue now follows the calendar, not the seasonal curve
The first cut built each day from AKC’s 2024–25 seasonal curve, with promos as a small overlay. That put the biggest day of the year on Dec 17 — a day with no offer. This version reverses it: the calendar sets every lift, and the seasonal curve only sets the underlying level.
- Level — AKC’s underlying Q4 demand, smoothed over 15 days so it rises into December without any single-day spikes. Scaled so each month hits its forecast.
- × Day of week — AKC’s own weekday pattern, measured on non-promo days.
- × Promo lift — applied only on dated windows, each measured from AKC’s own history.
A day with nothing on the calendar is simply level × weekday.
Your three equivalences hold up
Every day to year end
Planned Operating Revenue by day, colored by what’s on it. Hover any day for its full target.
Every dated window
Lift is the multiplier over a normal day, measured from AKC’s own history — your named 2026 analog where you gave one, otherwise the same window in 2024 and 2025.
Why media changes year over year, stretch by stretch
Each stretch of the quarter against the same dates in 2025, per day, with the reason its media moved. The approved forecast sets each month’s budget. Within the month, media follows the promo calendar and how quickly each stretch’s ads pay back (Section 6).
November and BFCM are compared on Thanksgiving-aligned dates; October and December on calendar dates.
Four things to review before we lock this
Promo-day ads pay back the same day. In November and December, ads on the days between promos pay back over the following week.
Meta credits each purchase to the day of the ad. Comparing its 1-day, 7-day and 28-day click windows shows how long each stretch’s spend takes to pay back, and which window to judge it on.
ROAS = Meta website-purchase value ÷ Meta spend. “Paid back within a day” = 1-day-click value ÷ 7-day-click value (2024/25 blended 40/60). November is aligned to Thanksgiving. Rows are 2024–25 stretches; where 2026 adds a promo inside one (Thanksgiving Promo, Nov 15–18; Holiday Promo, Dec 13–16), those days are judged on 1-day click, as in the day-by-day table.
What each kind of day earns and costs
Media isn’t set day by day. It’s sized on the new-customer revenue each day’s spend drives over the following week, using the efficiency that kind of day has historically delivered, then scaled to the month’s approved budget.
Day by day
Operating Revenue = Net Sales + Shipping. Media is total spend, split Meta/Google at each month’s approved ratio.