AKC Co. · Q4 Adjusted Forecast
Q4 now plans $4.72M (+29.8% YoY): returning customers grow again, and BFCM is sized to be the biggest moment of the year.
Two changes from the call. Returning revenue is set at +10% YoY in October and +15% in November and December, now that this year’s new customers are coming back. BFCM is pushed harder: $410k over the four days with Cyber Monday at $141k, backed by $45,420 of media, last year’s BFCM level. New-customer targets everywhere else are unchanged.
New held, returning raised, BFCM bigger
| Month | New | Returning | Total | Was | New YoY | Returning YoY | Total YoY | Media | Media YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | $289,626 | $303,589 | $593,215 | $546,711 | +42.6% | +10.0% | +23.8% | $131,668 | +24.0% |
| November | $647,295 | $679,311 | $1,326,607 | $1,150,058 | +63.0% | +22.1% | +39.1% | $180,558 | +50.3% |
| December | $1,224,283 | $1,580,730 | $2,805,014 | $2,595,019 | +46.9% | +15.0% | +27.0% | $251,969 | +36.0% |
| Q4 | $2,161,204 | $2,563,631 | $4,724,835 | $4,291,789 | +50.7% | +16.2% | +29.8% | $564,194 | +37.1% |
“Was” is the approved daily plan. November’s new-customer and returning figures include the bigger BFCM, so November returning lands above +15%. In Order Revenue terms (adds tax, about 1% higher) Q4 is $4,774,446.
Pushing harder into BFCM
BFCM is planned at $410k, +25.9% on 2024’s $326k and +60.1% on 2025’s $256k. That’s the lift we’d planned when BFCM was sized as the biggest offer of the year (1.92× vs the measured 1.62×), on top of the returning uplift.
Cyber Monday is now $140,771, 38% above this year’s biggest day so far ($102,247 on Jun 29, during the July 4th promo). About 225 orders, inside the fulfillment cap.
BFCM media goes from $33,070 to $45,420, back to last year’s level. The extra $24k of new-customer revenue on $12,350 of extra spend is a 1.98 marginal aMER, below the 2.25 BFCM has historically returned, so it’s a bar we should clear. Judge it on 1-day click and scale while it holds.
Where the extra revenue lands
| Window | Revenue was | Revenue now | Change | Media was | Media now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thanksgiving Promo Nov 15–18 | $253,298 | $272,915 | +7.7% | $35,038 | $35,038 |
| BFCM Promo Nov 27–30 | $308,277 | $409,934 | +33.0% | $33,070 | $45,420 |
| Cyber Monday Nov 30 | $105,862 | $140,771 | +33.0% | $11,003 | $15,112 |
| Holiday Promo Dec 13–16 | $709,182 | $767,063 | +8.2% | $64,744 | $64,744 |
| Peak day (capped) Dec 16 | $222,814 | $222,814 | at cap | $19,589 | $19,589 |
| Christmas cutoff week Dec 17–23 | $809,744 | $872,868 | +7.8% | $54,791 | $54,791 |
| NYE Promotion Dec 27–29 | $204,612 | $219,336 | +7.2% | $21,024 | $21,024 |
The returning uplift is spread across each month in the same proportions as the approved plan, and BFCM’s increase is added on top rather than pulled from other days. No evergreen day goes down.
Holiday Promo stays at the fulfillment cap
The returning uplift would put Dec 16 above the $222,814 cap, so the extra moves into Dec 13–15 and the window total still rises. We’ll push the Holiday Promo further once fulfillment confirms a higher ceiling.
Retention held at about 8%
About 8% of total media goes to retention, where it’s been running (8.1%): $10,533 in October, $14,445 in November and $20,157 in December, weighted into the promo windows with a short ramp ahead of each.
Outside BFCM, media totals and new-customer targets are exactly as approved, so aMER targets don’t move. Adding retention on top during promos (Tom’s suggestion) is still open.
Influencer is removed. Direct mail matches last year at about $75k and sits outside the paid-media totals here.
Every day, Oct 1 – Dec 31
| Date | On the day | Revenue | New | Returning | Media | Meta | aMER | MER | Judge on | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | $593,215 | $289,626 | $303,589 | $131,668 | 2.20 | 4.5× | |||||
| Oct 1 | Thu | Giveaway | $19,279 | $9,816 | $9,464 | $4,373 | $3,148 | $1,224 | 2.24 | 4.4× | 1-day click |
| Oct 2 | Fri | Giveaway | $10,168 | $5,177 | $4,991 | $2,706 | $1,948 | $758 | 1.91 | 3.8× | 1-day click |
| Oct 3 | Sat | Giveaway | $12,363 | $6,295 | $6,069 | $3,093 | $2,227 | $866 | 2.03 | 4.0× | 1-day click |
| Oct 4 | Sun | Giveaway | $15,845 | $8,067 | $7,778 | $3,712 | $2,673 | $1,039 | 2.17 | 4.3× | 1-day click |
| Oct 5 | Mon | Retention Wagyu GWP · Giveaway | $27,791 | $10,503 | $17,288 | $4,611 | $3,320 | $1,291 | 2.28 | 6.0× | 1-day click |
| Oct 6 | Tue | Retention Wagyu GWP · Giveaway | $26,417 | $9,984 | $16,433 | $4,474 | $3,221 | $1,253 | 2.23 | 5.9× | 1-day click |
| Oct 7 | Wed | Post-promo trough · Giveaway | $15,444 | $5,774 | $9,670 | $2,485 | $1,789 | $696 | 2.32 | 6.2× | 1-day click |
| Oct 8 | Thu | Post-promo trough · Giveaway | $13,764 | $5,146 | $8,618 | $2,344 | $1,688 | $656 | 2.20 | 5.9× | 1-day click |
| Oct 9 | Fri | Giveaway | $11,589 | $5,900 | $5,688 | $3,114 | $2,242 | $872 | 1.89 | 3.7× | 1-day click |
| Oct 10 | Sat | Giveaway | $13,604 | $6,926 | $6,678 | $3,463 | $2,493 | $970 | 2.00 | 3.9× | 1-day click |
| Oct 11 | Sun | Giveaway | $17,791 | $9,058 | $8,733 | $4,210 | $3,031 | $1,179 | 2.15 | 4.2× | 1-day click |
| Oct 12 | Mon | Giveaway | $21,997 | $11,199 | $10,798 | $5,057 | $3,641 | $1,416 | 2.21 | 4.4× | 1-day click |
| Oct 13 | Tue | Giveaway | $20,676 | $10,527 | $10,149 | $4,869 | $3,506 | $1,363 | 2.16 | 4.2× | 1-day click |
| Oct 14 | Wed | Giveaway | $22,349 | $11,378 | $10,970 | $5,256 | $3,784 | $1,472 | 2.16 | 4.3× | 1-day click |
| Oct 15 | Thu | Giveaway | $19,942 | $10,153 | $9,789 | $4,814 | $3,466 | $1,348 | 2.11 | 4.1× | 1-day click |
| Oct 16 | Fri | Giveaway | $12,005 | $6,112 | $5,893 | $3,321 | $2,391 | $930 | 1.84 | 3.6× | 1-day click |
| Oct 17 | Sat | Giveaway | $14,621 | $7,444 | $7,177 | $3,782 | $2,723 | $1,059 | 1.97 | 3.9× | 1-day click |
| Oct 18 | Sun | Giveaway | $19,076 | $9,713 | $9,364 | $4,516 | $3,251 | $1,264 | 2.15 | 4.2× | 1-day click |
| Oct 19 | Mon | Free Shipping Promo · Giveaway | $32,918 | $17,456 | $15,462 | $6,795 | $4,892 | $1,903 | 2.57 | 4.8× | 1-day click |
| Oct 20 | Tue | Free Shipping Promo · Giveaway | $30,285 | $16,060 | $14,225 | $6,264 | $4,510 | $1,754 | 2.56 | 4.8× | 1-day click |
| Oct 21 | Wed | Free Shipping Promo · Giveaway | $32,714 | $17,348 | $15,366 | $6,762 | $4,869 | $1,893 | 2.57 | 4.8× | 1-day click |
| Oct 22 | Thu | Post-promo trough · Giveaway | $15,543 | $5,811 | $9,732 | $2,589 | $1,864 | $725 | 2.24 | 6.0× | 1-day click |
| Oct 23 | Fri | Post-promo trough · Giveaway | $9,357 | $3,499 | $5,859 | $2,124 | $1,529 | $595 | 1.65 | 4.4× | 1-day click |
| Oct 24 | Sat | Giveaway | $16,259 | $8,278 | $7,981 | $4,000 | $2,880 | $1,120 | 2.07 | 4.1× | 1-day click |
| Oct 25 | Sun | Giveaway | $20,772 | $10,576 | $10,196 | $4,802 | $3,457 | $1,344 | 2.20 | 4.3× | 1-day click |
| Oct 26 | Mon | Giveaway | $23,897 | $12,167 | $11,730 | $5,384 | $3,877 | $1,508 | 2.26 | 4.4× | 1-day click |
| Oct 27 | Tue | Giveaway | $22,327 | $11,367 | $10,960 | $5,094 | $3,668 | $1,426 | 2.23 | 4.4× | 1-day click |
| Oct 28 | Wed | Giveaway | $23,922 | $12,180 | $11,742 | $5,413 | $3,897 | $1,516 | 2.25 | 4.4× | 1-day click |
| Oct 29 | Thu | Giveaway | $21,002 | $10,693 | $10,309 | $4,952 | $3,565 | $1,387 | 2.16 | 4.2× | 1-day click |
| Oct 30 | Fri | Giveaway | $13,448 | $6,847 | $6,601 | $3,574 | $2,573 | $1,001 | 1.92 | 3.8× | 1-day click |
| Oct 31 | Sat | $16,049 | $8,171 | $7,878 | $3,718 | $2,677 | $1,041 | 2.20 | 4.3× | 1-day click | |
| November | $1,326,607 | $647,295 | $679,311 | $180,558 | 3.58 | 7.3× | |||||
| Nov 1 | Sun | $19,558 | $10,251 | $9,307 | $2,988 | $1,972 | $1,016 | 3.43 | 6.5× | 7-day click | |
| Nov 2 | Mon | $23,726 | $12,435 | $11,290 | $3,458 | $2,282 | $1,176 | 3.60 | 6.9× | 7-day click | |
| Nov 3 | Tue | $22,644 | $11,869 | $10,776 | $3,435 | $2,267 | $1,168 | 3.46 | 6.6× | 7-day click | |
| Nov 4 | Wed | $25,023 | $13,115 | $11,908 | $3,774 | $2,491 | $1,283 | 3.48 | 6.6× | 7-day click | |
| Nov 5 | Thu | $25,096 | $13,154 | $11,942 | $3,972 | $2,622 | $1,350 | 3.31 | 6.3× | 7-day click | |
| Nov 6 | Fri | $15,594 | $8,173 | $7,421 | $3,105 | $2,050 | $1,056 | 2.63 | 5.0× | 7-day click | |
| Nov 7 | Sat | $19,977 | $10,470 | $9,506 | $3,577 | $2,361 | $1,216 | 2.93 | 5.6× | 7-day click | |
| Nov 8 | Sun | $25,603 | $13,419 | $12,184 | $4,319 | $2,850 | $1,468 | 3.11 | 5.9× | 7-day click | |
| Nov 9 | Mon | $31,121 | $16,312 | $14,810 | $5,246 | $3,462 | $1,784 | 3.11 | 5.9× | 7-day click | |
| Nov 10 | Tue | $34,629 | $18,150 | $16,479 | $6,018 | $3,972 | $2,046 | 3.02 | 5.8× | 7-day click | |
| Nov 11 | Wed | $38,462 | $20,159 | $18,303 | $6,721 | $4,436 | $2,285 | 3.00 | 5.7× | 7-day click | |
| Nov 12 | Thu | $38,594 | $20,229 | $18,366 | $6,726 | $4,439 | $2,287 | 3.01 | 5.7× | 7-day click | |
| Nov 13 | Fri | $25,259 | $13,239 | $12,020 | $5,297 | $3,496 | $1,801 | 2.50 | 4.8× | 7-day click | |
| Nov 14 | Sat | $31,789 | $16,661 | $15,127 | $5,727 | $3,780 | $1,947 | 2.91 | 5.6× | 7-day click | |
| Nov 15 | Sun | Thanksgiving Promo | $49,198 | $29,090 | $20,109 | $6,595 | $4,353 | $2,242 | 4.41 | 7.5× | 1-day click |
| Nov 16 | Mon | Thanksgiving Promo | $73,146 | $43,249 | $29,897 | $9,347 | $6,169 | $3,178 | 4.63 | 7.8× | 1-day click |
| Nov 17 | Tue | Thanksgiving Promo | $80,556 | $47,631 | $32,926 | $10,189 | $6,725 | $3,464 | 4.67 | 7.9× | 1-day click |
| Nov 18 | Wed | Thanksgiving Promo | $70,014 | $41,398 | $28,617 | $8,908 | $5,879 | $3,029 | 4.65 | 7.9× | 1-day click |
| Nov 19 | Thu | Post-promo trough | $33,282 | $12,749 | $20,533 | $3,278 | $2,163 | $1,114 | 3.89 | 10.2× | 7-day click |
| Nov 20 | Fri | Post-promo trough | $18,547 | $7,105 | $11,442 | $2,803 | $1,850 | $953 | 2.53 | 6.6× | 7-day click |
| Nov 21 | Sat | $31,953 | $16,748 | $15,206 | $5,094 | $3,362 | $1,732 | 3.29 | 6.3× | 7-day click | |
| Nov 22 | Sun | $41,262 | $21,627 | $19,635 | $6,069 | $4,006 | $2,064 | 3.56 | 6.8× | 7-day click | |
| Nov 23 | Mon | $51,480 | $26,982 | $24,498 | $7,196 | $4,750 | $2,447 | 3.75 | 7.2× | 7-day click | |
| Nov 24 | Tue | Thanksgiving ship cutoff | $60,073 | $33,154 | $26,919 | $5,500 | $3,630 | $1,870 | 6.03 | 10.9× | 7-day click |
| Nov 25 | Wed | Thanksgiving Eve | $17,917 | $7,834 | $10,083 | $3,098 | $2,044 | $1,053 | 2.53 | 5.8× | 7-day click |
| Nov 26 | Thu | Thanksgiving Day | $12,171 | $5,599 | $6,572 | $2,697 | $1,780 | $917 | 2.08 | 4.5× | 7-day click |
| Nov 27 | Fri | BFCM Promo | $110,092 | $42,028 | $68,064 | $12,174 | $8,035 | $4,139 | 3.45 | 9.0× | 1-day click |
| Nov 28 | Sat | BFCM Promo | $59,077 | $22,553 | $36,524 | $7,199 | $4,751 | $2,448 | 3.13 | 8.2× | 1-day click |
| Nov 29 | Sun | BFCM Promo | $99,993 | $38,173 | $61,820 | $10,935 | $7,217 | $3,718 | 3.49 | 9.1× | 1-day click |
| Nov 30 | Mon | BFCM Promo | $140,771 | $53,740 | $87,031 | $15,112 | $9,974 | $5,138 | 3.56 | 9.3× | 1-day click |
| December | $2,805,014 | $1,224,283 | $1,580,730 | $251,969 | 4.86 | 11.1× | |||||
| Dec 1 | Tue | Post-promo trough | $39,904 | $12,491 | $27,413 | $4,064 | $2,438 | $1,626 | 3.07 | 9.8× | 7-day click |
| Dec 2 | Wed | Post-promo trough | $45,784 | $14,331 | $31,453 | $4,064 | $2,438 | $1,626 | 3.53 | 11.3× | 7-day click |
| Dec 3 | Thu | $60,216 | $25,497 | $34,719 | $6,604 | $3,962 | $2,642 | 3.86 | 9.1× | 7-day click | |
| Dec 4 | Fri | $39,635 | $16,783 | $22,852 | $5,304 | $3,182 | $2,122 | 3.16 | 7.5× | 7-day click | |
| Dec 5 | Sat | $50,608 | $21,429 | $29,179 | $5,984 | $3,591 | $2,394 | 3.58 | 8.5× | 7-day click | |
| Dec 6 | Sun | $75,997 | $32,179 | $43,817 | $7,876 | $4,726 | $3,150 | 4.09 | 9.6× | 7-day click | |
| Dec 7 | Mon | $90,464 | $38,305 | $52,159 | $9,448 | $5,669 | $3,779 | 4.05 | 9.6× | 7-day click | |
| Dec 8 | Tue | $87,060 | $36,864 | $50,196 | $9,818 | $5,891 | $3,927 | 3.75 | 8.9× | 7-day click | |
| Dec 9 | Wed | $94,691 | $40,095 | $54,596 | $11,187 | $6,712 | $4,475 | 3.58 | 8.5× | 7-day click | |
| Dec 10 | Thu | $87,415 | $37,014 | $50,401 | $11,383 | $6,830 | $4,553 | 3.25 | 7.7× | 7-day click | |
| Dec 11 | Fri | $58,567 | $24,799 | $33,768 | $9,980 | $5,988 | $3,992 | 2.48 | 5.9× | 7-day click | |
| Dec 12 | Sat | $69,454 | $29,409 | $40,045 | $10,886 | $6,531 | $4,354 | 2.70 | 6.4× | 7-day click | |
| Dec 13 | Sun | Holiday Promo | $134,874 | $58,264 | $76,610 | $11,813 | $7,088 | $4,725 | 4.93 | 11.4× | 1-day click |
| Dec 14 | Mon | Holiday Promo | $204,057 | $88,151 | $115,907 | $16,749 | $10,049 | $6,699 | 5.26 | 12.2× | 1-day click |
| Dec 15 | Tue | Holiday Promo | $205,318 | $88,695 | $116,623 | $16,593 | $9,956 | $6,637 | 5.35 | 12.4× | 1-day click |
| Dec 16 | Wed | Holiday Promo | $222,814 | $96,253 | $126,561 | $19,589 | $11,753 | $7,836 | 4.91 | 11.4× | 1-day click |
| Dec 17 | Thu | Christmas cutoff week | $167,902 | $76,502 | $91,400 | $10,421 | $6,253 | $4,168 | 7.34 | 16.1× | 7-day click |
| Dec 18 | Fri | Christmas cutoff week | $145,884 | $66,470 | $79,414 | $9,129 | $5,478 | $3,652 | 7.28 | 16.0× | 7-day click |
| Dec 19 | Sat | Christmas cutoff week | $156,462 | $71,289 | $85,173 | $9,540 | $5,724 | $3,816 | 7.47 | 16.4× | 7-day click |
| Dec 20 | Sun | Christmas cutoff week | $113,916 | $51,904 | $62,012 | $7,154 | $4,293 | $2,862 | 7.25 | 15.9× | 7-day click |
| Dec 21 | Mon | Christmas cutoff week | $129,123 | $58,833 | $70,290 | $7,399 | $4,439 | $2,960 | 7.95 | 17.5× | 7-day click |
| Dec 22 | Tue | Christmas cutoff week | $102,318 | $46,620 | $55,698 | $7,082 | $4,249 | $2,833 | 6.58 | 14.4× | 7-day click |
| Dec 23 | Wed | Christmas cutoff week | $57,262 | $26,090 | $31,171 | $4,064 | $2,438 | $1,626 | 6.42 | 14.1× | 7-day click |
| Dec 24 | Thu | Christmas lull | $28,941 | $9,781 | $19,161 | $3,002 | $1,801 | $1,201 | 3.26 | 9.6× | 7-day click |
| Dec 25 | Fri | Christmas lull | $11,655 | $3,939 | $7,716 | $2,497 | $1,498 | $999 | 1.58 | 4.7× | 7-day click |
| Dec 26 | Sat | Christmas lull | $33,983 | $11,484 | $22,498 | $3,451 | $2,071 | $1,380 | 3.33 | 9.8× | 7-day click |
| Dec 27 | Sun | NYE Promotion | $51,924 | $25,686 | $26,239 | $5,335 | $3,201 | $2,134 | 4.81 | 9.7× | 1-day click |
| Dec 28 | Mon | NYE Promotion | $88,169 | $43,615 | $44,554 | $8,402 | $5,041 | $3,361 | 5.19 | 10.5× | 1-day click |
| Dec 29 | Tue | NYE Promotion | $79,242 | $39,199 | $40,043 | $7,287 | $4,372 | $2,915 | 5.38 | 10.9× | 1-day click |
| Dec 30 | Wed | NYE ship cutoff | $61,991 | $27,578 | $34,413 | $4,237 | $2,542 | $1,695 | 6.51 | 14.6× | 7-day click |
| Dec 31 | Thu | New Year's Eve | $9,383 | $4,734 | $4,649 | $1,626 | $975 | $650 | 2.91 | 5.8× | 7-day click |
Highlighted rows changed beyond the returning uplift: BFCM (bigger) and the Holiday Promo (fulfillment cap). Meta/Google split at each month’s approved ratio. “Judge on” is the attribution window to read each day’s media on.
Still to do
| Owner | Item |
|---|---|
| Max | Load the adjusted dailies into Statlas (October first). |
| AKC | Daily fulfillment ceiling for December. A higher ceiling lets the Holiday Promo grow the way BFCM just did. |
| AKC | Confirm the Holiday Promo offer (Dec 13–16). |
| Both | Decide whether to add retention spend on top during promo windows. |