Alaskan King Crab Co. · November 2026 · updated Oct 10

AKC November 2026 Forecast

MLTO matches your committed target: $1.33M operating revenue on $194,445 total spend. Range: $1.19M conservative to $1.40M stretch, same budget in all three.

Operating revenue (MLTO)

$1.33M

+30.5%vs $1.02M LY

New-customer revenue

$647,294

+54.5%

Returning revenue

$679,313

+13.7%

Total spend

$194,445

+17.9%

aMER

3.33x

LY 2.54x · bar 2.11x

Contribution margin

$280,670

+43.4%CM 21.2%

YoY against Nov 2 to Dec 1, 2025, so Cyber Monday sits inside both periods (it fell on Dec 1 last year and lands on Nov 30 this year). CM against last November at last November's rates.

Conservative

$1.19M

-10.1% vs target

Returning flat to last year (October is running 25% under plan on returning), Thanksgiving and BFCM 8% softer on new customers, budget held.

MLTO · recommended

$1.33M

matches target

Your committed target: new customers at the agreed day-type aMERs, returning +14% YoY, budget as committed.

Stretch

$1.40M

+5.4% vs target

New customers +8% and returning +3% above target on the same budget, from stronger Thanksgiving and BFCM offer days.

Scenarios side by side: $1.19M / $1.33M / $1.40M

Pacer actuals and plan data. Revenue on the operating basis (net sales + shipping), the basis your targets use.

Line	Conservative	MLTO	Stretch
Operating revenue (net sales + shipping)	$1.19M	$1.33M	$1.40M
New-customer revenue	$595,512	$647,294	$699,080
Returning revenue	$597,447	$679,313	$699,694
Order revenue (incl. tax)	$1.20M	$1.34M	$1.41M
Orders	1,919	2,137	2,250
New-customer orders	908	987	1,066
Total spend (paid + offline)	$194,445	$194,445	$194,445
Meta	$119,168	$119,168	$119,168
Google	$61,389	$61,389	$61,389
Offline	$13,888	$13,888	$13,888
aMER (new revenue / total spend)	3.06x	3.33x	3.60x
MER	6.14x	6.82x	7.19x
New-customer CAC	$214	$197	$182
Contribution margin	$232,990	$280,670	$306,744
CM %	19.5%	21.2%	21.9%

All three scenarios hold spend at $194,445 and every P&L rate constant (discounts, refunds, shipping, tax, COGS, fulfillment); only new and returning revenue move, so aMER is the only efficiency read that changes.

Cumulative operating revenue by scenario

Hover any day for all three scenarios.

Day by day

Date	Day	Window	New rev	Returning rev	Op revenue	Meta	Google	Offline	Total spend	aMER	CAC	Cumulative
11/01	Sun	Evergreen	$9,431	$8,185	$17,616	$1,972	$1,016	–	$2,988	3.16x	$208	$17.6K
11/02	Mon	Evergreen	$11,440	$9,929	$21,370	$2,282	$1,176	–	$3,458	3.31x	$198	$39.0K
11/03	Tue	Evergreen	$10,919	$9,477	$20,397	$2,267	$1,168	–	$3,435	3.18x	$206	$59.4K
11/04	Wed	Evergreen	$12,066	$10,473	$22,539	$2,491	$1,283	–	$3,774	3.20x	$205	$81.9K
11/05	Thu	Evergreen	$12,102	$10,503	$22,604	$2,622	$1,350	–	$3,972	3.05x	$215	$104.5K
11/06	Fri	Evergreen	$7,519	$6,527	$14,046	$2,050	$1,056	–	$3,106	2.42x	$270	$118.6K
11/07	Sat	Evergreen	$9,632	$8,360	$17,993	$2,361	$1,216	–	$3,577	2.69x	$243	$136.6K
11/08	Sun	Evergreen	$12,345	$10,716	$23,061	$2,850	$1,468	–	$4,318	2.86x	$229	$159.6K
11/09	Mon	Evergreen	$15,007	$13,025	$28,032	$3,462	$1,784	–	$5,246	2.86x	$229	$187.7K
11/10	Tue	Evergreen	$16,698	$14,493	$31,191	$3,972	$2,046	–	$6,018	2.77x	$236	$218.8K
11/11	Wed	Evergreen	$18,546	$16,097	$34,643	$4,436	$2,285	–	$6,721	2.76x	$237	$253.5K
11/12	Thu	Evergreen	$18,611	$16,153	$34,763	$4,439	$2,287	–	$6,726	2.77x	$237	$288.3K
11/13	Fri	Evergreen	$12,180	$10,571	$22,751	$3,496	$1,801	–	$5,297	2.30x	$285	$311.0K
11/14	Sat	Evergreen	$15,328	$13,304	$28,632	$3,780	$1,947	–	$5,727	2.68x	$245	$339.6K
11/15	Sun	Thanksgiving Promo	$26,763	$17,686	$44,448	$4,353	$2,242	–	$6,595	4.06x	$161	$384.1K
11/16	Mon	Thanksgiving Promo	$39,789	$26,294	$66,083	$6,169	$3,178	–	$9,347	4.26x	$154	$450.2K
11/17	Tue	Thanksgiving Promo	$43,821	$28,958	$72,778	$6,725	$3,464	–	$10,189	4.30x	$153	$522.9K
11/18	Wed	Thanksgiving Promo	$38,086	$25,168	$63,254	$5,879	$3,029	–	$8,908	4.28x	$153	$586.2K
11/19	Thu	Post-promo trough	$11,729	$18,058	$29,788	$2,163	$1,114	–	$3,277	3.58x	$184	$616.0K
11/20	Fri	Post-promo trough	$6,537	$10,063	$16,600	$1,850	$953	–	$2,803	2.33x	$282	$632.6K
11/21	Sat	Evergreen	$15,408	$13,373	$28,782	$3,362	$1,732	–	$5,094	3.02x	$217	$661.4K
11/22	Sun	Evergreen	$19,897	$17,269	$37,166	$4,006	$2,064	–	$6,070	3.28x	$200	$698.5K
11/23	Mon	Evergreen	$24,823	$21,546	$46,369	$4,750	$2,447	–	$7,197	3.45x	$190	$744.9K
11/24	Tue	Thanksgiving ship cutoff	$30,502	$23,675	$54,177	$3,630	$1,870	$1,984	$7,484	4.08x	$161	$799.1K
11/25	Wed	Thanksgiving Eve	$7,207	$8,868	$16,075	$2,044	$1,053	$1,984	$5,081	1.42x	$460	$815.2K
11/26	Thu	Thanksgiving Day	$5,151	$5,780	$10,931	$1,780	$917	$1,984	$4,681	1.10x	$599	$826.1K
11/27	Fri	BFCM Promo	$38,666	$59,861	$98,527	$8,035	$4,139	$1,984	$14,158	2.73x	$240	$924.6K
11/28	Sat	BFCM Promo	$20,749	$32,122	$52,871	$4,751	$2,448	$1,984	$9,183	2.26x	$290	$977.5K
11/29	Sun	BFCM Promo	$35,119	$54,370	$89,489	$7,217	$3,718	$1,984	$12,919	2.72x	$241	$1.07M
11/30	Mon	BFCM Promo	$49,441	$76,542	$125,983	$9,974	$5,138	$1,984	$17,096	2.89x	$227	$1.19M
November			$595,512	$597,447	$1.19M	$119,168	$61,389	$13,888	$194,445	3.06x	$214

Date	Day	Window	New rev	Returning rev	Op revenue	Meta	Google	Offline	Total spend	aMER	CAC	Cumulative
11/01	Sun	Evergreen	$10,251	$9,307	$19,558	$1,972	$1,016	–	$2,988	3.43x	$192	$19.6K
11/02	Mon	Evergreen	$12,435	$11,290	$23,725	$2,282	$1,176	–	$3,458	3.60x	$182	$43.3K
11/03	Tue	Evergreen	$11,869	$10,776	$22,645	$2,267	$1,168	–	$3,435	3.46x	$190	$65.9K
11/04	Wed	Evergreen	$13,115	$11,908	$25,023	$2,491	$1,283	–	$3,774	3.48x	$189	$91.0K
11/05	Thu	Evergreen	$13,154	$11,942	$25,096	$2,622	$1,350	–	$3,972	3.31x	$198	$116.0K
11/06	Fri	Evergreen	$8,173	$7,421	$15,594	$2,050	$1,056	–	$3,106	2.63x	$248	$131.6K
11/07	Sat	Evergreen	$10,470	$9,506	$19,976	$2,361	$1,216	–	$3,577	2.93x	$224	$151.6K
11/08	Sun	Evergreen	$13,419	$12,184	$25,603	$2,850	$1,468	–	$4,318	3.11x	$211	$177.2K
11/09	Mon	Evergreen	$16,312	$14,810	$31,122	$3,462	$1,784	–	$5,246	3.11x	$211	$208.3K
11/10	Tue	Evergreen	$18,150	$16,479	$34,629	$3,972	$2,046	–	$6,018	3.02x	$217	$243.0K
11/11	Wed	Evergreen	$20,159	$18,303	$38,462	$4,436	$2,285	–	$6,721	3.00x	$218	$281.4K
11/12	Thu	Evergreen	$20,229	$18,366	$38,595	$4,439	$2,287	–	$6,726	3.01x	$218	$320.0K
11/13	Fri	Evergreen	$13,239	$12,020	$25,259	$3,496	$1,801	–	$5,297	2.50x	$262	$345.3K
11/14	Sat	Evergreen	$16,661	$15,127	$31,788	$3,780	$1,947	–	$5,727	2.91x	$225	$377.1K
11/15	Sun	Thanksgiving Promo	$29,090	$20,109	$49,199	$4,353	$2,242	–	$6,595	4.41x	$149	$426.3K
11/16	Mon	Thanksgiving Promo	$43,249	$29,897	$73,146	$6,169	$3,178	–	$9,347	4.63x	$142	$499.4K
11/17	Tue	Thanksgiving Promo	$47,631	$32,926	$80,557	$6,725	$3,464	–	$10,189	4.67x	$140	$580.0K
11/18	Wed	Thanksgiving Promo	$41,398	$28,617	$70,015	$5,879	$3,029	–	$8,908	4.65x	$141	$650.0K
11/19	Thu	Post-promo trough	$12,749	$20,533	$33,282	$2,163	$1,114	–	$3,277	3.89x	$169	$683.3K
11/20	Fri	Post-promo trough	$7,105	$11,442	$18,547	$1,850	$953	–	$2,803	2.53x	$260	$701.8K
11/21	Sat	Evergreen	$16,748	$15,206	$31,954	$3,362	$1,732	–	$5,094	3.29x	$200	$733.8K
11/22	Sun	Evergreen	$21,627	$19,635	$41,262	$4,006	$2,064	–	$6,070	3.56x	$184	$775.0K
11/23	Mon	Evergreen	$26,982	$24,498	$51,480	$4,750	$2,447	–	$7,197	3.75x	$175	$826.5K
11/24	Tue	Thanksgiving ship cutoff	$33,154	$26,919	$60,073	$3,630	$1,870	$1,984	$7,484	4.43x	$148	$886.6K
11/25	Wed	Thanksgiving Eve	$7,834	$10,083	$17,917	$2,044	$1,053	$1,984	$5,081	1.54x	$423	$904.5K
11/26	Thu	Thanksgiving Day	$5,599	$6,572	$12,171	$1,780	$917	$1,984	$4,681	1.20x	$551	$916.7K
11/27	Fri	BFCM Promo	$42,028	$68,064	$110,092	$8,035	$4,139	$1,984	$14,158	2.97x	$221	$1.03M
11/28	Sat	BFCM Promo	$22,553	$36,524	$59,077	$4,751	$2,448	$1,984	$9,183	2.46x	$267	$1.09M
11/29	Sun	BFCM Promo	$38,173	$61,820	$99,993	$7,217	$3,718	$1,984	$12,919	2.95x	$222	$1.19M
11/30	Mon	BFCM Promo	$53,740	$87,031	$140,771	$9,974	$5,138	$1,984	$17,096	3.14x	$208	$1.33M
November			$647,294	$679,313	$1.33M	$119,168	$61,389	$13,888	$194,445	3.33x	$197

Date	Day	Window	New rev	Returning rev	Op revenue	Meta	Google	Offline	Total spend	aMER	CAC	Cumulative
11/01	Sun	Evergreen	$11,071	$9,586	$20,657	$1,972	$1,016	–	$2,988	3.71x	$177	$20.7K
11/02	Mon	Evergreen	$13,430	$11,629	$25,058	$2,282	$1,176	–	$3,458	3.88x	$169	$45.7K
11/03	Tue	Evergreen	$12,819	$11,099	$23,918	$2,267	$1,168	–	$3,435	3.73x	$176	$69.6K
11/04	Wed	Evergreen	$14,164	$12,265	$26,429	$2,491	$1,283	–	$3,774	3.75x	$175	$96.1K
11/05	Thu	Evergreen	$14,206	$12,300	$26,507	$2,622	$1,350	–	$3,972	3.58x	$183	$122.6K
11/06	Fri	Evergreen	$8,827	$7,644	$16,470	$2,050	$1,056	–	$3,106	2.84x	$230	$139.0K
11/07	Sat	Evergreen	$11,308	$9,791	$21,099	$2,361	$1,216	–	$3,577	3.16x	$207	$160.1K
11/08	Sun	Evergreen	$14,493	$12,550	$27,042	$2,850	$1,468	–	$4,318	3.36x	$195	$187.2K
11/09	Mon	Evergreen	$17,617	$15,254	$32,871	$3,462	$1,784	–	$5,246	3.36x	$195	$220.1K
11/10	Tue	Evergreen	$19,602	$16,973	$36,575	$3,972	$2,046	–	$6,018	3.26x	$201	$256.6K
11/11	Wed	Evergreen	$21,772	$18,852	$40,624	$4,436	$2,285	–	$6,721	3.24x	$202	$297.3K
11/12	Thu	Evergreen	$21,847	$18,917	$40,764	$4,439	$2,287	–	$6,726	3.25x	$202	$338.0K
11/13	Fri	Evergreen	$14,298	$12,381	$26,679	$3,496	$1,801	–	$5,297	2.70x	$243	$364.7K
11/14	Sat	Evergreen	$17,994	$15,581	$33,575	$3,780	$1,947	–	$5,727	3.14x	$209	$398.3K
11/15	Sun	Thanksgiving Promo	$31,417	$20,712	$52,129	$4,353	$2,242	–	$6,595	4.76x	$138	$450.4K
11/16	Mon	Thanksgiving Promo	$46,709	$30,794	$77,503	$6,169	$3,178	–	$9,347	5.00x	$131	$527.9K
11/17	Tue	Thanksgiving Promo	$51,441	$33,914	$85,355	$6,725	$3,464	–	$10,189	5.05x	$130	$613.3K
11/18	Wed	Thanksgiving Promo	$44,710	$29,476	$74,185	$5,879	$3,029	–	$8,908	5.02x	$131	$687.4K
11/19	Thu	Post-promo trough	$13,769	$21,149	$34,918	$2,163	$1,114	–	$3,277	4.20x	$156	$722.4K
11/20	Fri	Post-promo trough	$7,673	$11,785	$19,459	$1,850	$953	–	$2,803	2.74x	$240	$741.8K
11/21	Sat	Evergreen	$18,088	$15,662	$33,750	$3,362	$1,732	–	$5,094	3.55x	$185	$775.6K
11/22	Sun	Evergreen	$23,357	$20,224	$43,581	$4,006	$2,064	–	$6,070	3.85x	$170	$819.1K
11/23	Mon	Evergreen	$29,141	$25,233	$54,374	$4,750	$2,447	–	$7,197	4.05x	$162	$873.5K
11/24	Tue	Thanksgiving ship cutoff	$35,806	$27,727	$63,533	$3,630	$1,870	$1,984	$7,484	4.78x	$137	$937.1K
11/25	Wed	Thanksgiving Eve	$8,461	$10,385	$18,846	$2,044	$1,053	$1,984	$5,081	1.67x	$392	$955.9K
11/26	Thu	Thanksgiving Day	$6,047	$6,769	$12,816	$1,780	$917	$1,984	$4,681	1.29x	$510	$968.7K
11/27	Fri	BFCM Promo	$45,390	$70,106	$115,496	$8,035	$4,139	$1,984	$14,158	3.21x	$205	$1.08M
11/28	Sat	BFCM Promo	$24,357	$37,620	$61,977	$4,751	$2,448	$1,984	$9,183	2.65x	$247	$1.15M
11/29	Sun	BFCM Promo	$41,227	$63,675	$104,901	$7,217	$3,718	$1,984	$12,919	3.19x	$206	$1.25M
11/30	Mon	BFCM Promo	$58,039	$89,642	$147,681	$9,974	$5,138	$1,984	$17,096	3.39x	$193	$1.40M
November			$699,080	$699,694	$1.40M	$119,168	$61,389	$13,888	$194,445	3.60x	$182

Spend per day follows the committed Oct 1 build: each day's new-customer revenue at that day type's aMER. Offline is the $13,888 booked for Nov 24 to 30. Spend is the same in all three scenarios.

MLTO by window: Thanksgiving Promo and BFCM carry 51% of November

Eight promo days, the rest evergreen around the Thanksgiving delivery cutoff.

Window	Dates	Days	Op revenue	Per day	New per day	Returning per day	Spend	Spend per day	aMER	Share
Evergreen	11/01 to 11/14, 11/21 to 11/23	17	$501,769	$29,516	$15,470	$14,046	$82,724	$4,866	3.18x	38%
Thanksgiving Promo	11/15 to 11/18	4	$272,916	$68,229	$40,342	$27,887	$35,039	$8,760	4.61x	21%
Post-promo trough	11/19 to 11/20	2	$51,829	$25,914	$9,927	$15,987	$6,080	$3,040	3.27x	4%
Thanksgiving ship cutoff	11/24	1	$60,073	$60,073	$33,154	$26,919	$7,484	$7,484	4.43x	5%
Thanksgiving Eve	11/25	1	$17,917	$17,917	$7,834	$10,083	$5,081	$5,081	1.54x	1%
Thanksgiving Day	11/26	1	$12,171	$12,171	$5,599	$6,572	$4,681	$4,681	1.20x	1%
BFCM Promo	11/27 to 11/30	4	$409,932	$102,483	$39,123	$63,360	$53,356	$13,339	2.93x	31%

Thanksgiving Promo: 15% off sitewide, code CRAB4TURKEYDAY, Nov 15 to 18. BFCM: 20% off XL King Crab Black Friday to Sunday, Cyber Monday add-on. Ship cutoff Nov 24 for Thanksgiving delivery.

November P&L: MLTO contribution margin $280,670 (21.2%)

The same waterfall the Pacer P&L runs: operating revenue back up to gross sales with the November rates, cost of delivery from the CM settings.

Line	Conservative	MLTO	Stretch	Nov 2025 actual
Gross sales	$1.27M	$1.42M	$1.49M	$1.05M
Discounts	$80,612	$89,643	$94,519	$88,404
Refunds	$26,838	$29,845	$31,469	$26,174
Net sales	$1.17M	$1.30M	$1.37M	$936,595
Shipping revenue	$27,117	$30,155	$31,796	$12,404
Taxes	$10,076	$11,205	$11,815	$7,884
Order revenue (incl. tax)	$1.20M	$1.34M	$1.41M	$956,883
Operating revenue (net sales + shipping)	$1.19M	$1.33M	$1.40M	$948,999
New-customer revenue	$595,512	$647,294	$699,080	$396,539
Returning revenue	$597,447	$679,313	$699,694	$552,460
Merch COGS	$573,594	$637,854	$672,553	$460,805
Fulfillment + shipping cost + card fees	$191,930	$213,638	$225,031	$147,488
Total cost of delivery	$765,524	$851,492	$897,585	$608,292
Gross profit	$427,435	$475,115	$501,189	$340,707
Total advertising	$194,445	$194,445	$194,445	$145,036
Contribution margin	$232,990	$280,670	$306,744	$195,671
CM %	19.5%	21.2%	21.9%	20.6%
First-order contribution (new rev after COD minus spend)	$18,926	$37,379	$56,039	-$2,672
Returning contribution	$214,064	$243,291	$250,705	$198,342

Last November is shown at its own rates. MLTO gross sales: $1.42M. Order revenue = operating revenue × 1.0084.

Cost of delivery: MLTO

Line	Rate	% of op revenue	Source
Merch COGS	49.2% of net sales	48.1%	Pacer CM settings (equals 45% of gross sales)
Card processing	2.8% of net sales	2.7%	Pacer CM settings
Fulfillment + shipping cost	$83 per order ($15 + $68)	13.4%	Pacer CM settings, 2,137 orders
Other cost of delivery	0%	0.0%	Nothing else on file; card fees already sit in the line above
Total cost of delivery		64.2%	Last November 64.1%

November rates as % of gross sales: discounts 6.33%, refunds 2.11%, shipping 2.13%, taxes 0.79%

Each rate = last November's rate × how this year is running against last year, averaged over two windows.

Line	Nov 2023	Nov 2024	Nov 2025	Trailing 90 days, LY → TY	Year to date, LY → TY	Nov 2026
Discounts	7.89%	6.78%	8.41%	8.50% → 6.13% (0.72x)	7.83% → 6.14% (0.78x)	6.33%
Refunds	4.01%	2.51%	2.49%	2.95% → 2.31% (0.79x)	2.93% → 2.66% (0.91x)	2.11%
Shipping revenue	0.59%	0.89%	1.18%	1.53% → 2.84% (1.85x)	1.47% → 2.58% (1.76x)	2.13%
Taxes	0.68%	0.84%	0.75%	0.90% → 0.92% (1.03x)	0.89% → 0.96% (1.08x)	0.79%

Trailing 90: Jul 10 to Oct 8, 2026 vs Jul 11 to Oct 9, 2025. Year to date: Feb 1 to Oct 8, 2026 vs same dates 2025 (January left out: a one-off 12.7% refund month). Shopify, Recharge Subscriptions excluded.

What the Pacer P&L stores

The P&L reads rates on its own bases, so the same forecast is saved as:

Discount % of gross sales	6.33%
Refunds % of discounted sales	2.25%
Shipping revenue % of net sales	2.33%
Taxes % of net sales	0.86%

Watchpoints

Returning revenue is the swing: the target needs returning +14% YoY, and October is pacing under plan on returning so far. The Thanksgiving and BFCM sends to your customer file carry the most weight; each 5 points of returning YoY moves the month about $30K.
Discounts forecast at 6.3% of gross sales against 8.4% last November. Broad use of the 15% Thanksgiving code pushes it back toward last year and lifts COGS as a share of net sales.
Shipping revenue runs about 1.8x last year's share all year; November carries the same lift.
MLTO aMER 3.33x sits well above the 2.11x bar that holds last November's $195,671 CM, so there is room to fund more new customers if the promo days read early.