Alaskan King Crab Co · June Spend Pacing

June 2026 Daily Plan

Forecast to a 2.44 aMER — scale new-customer revenue into the July 4th sale · Jun 18, 2026

Bottom line

Full-June CM

$172,527

+$27,100 vs $145,427 target

vs current trajectory

+$6,167

over $166,360 (actuals + goals)

Recommended remaining spend

$84,000

+$15,765 → +$40,316 new-customer rev

aMER (NC÷total)

2.44

vs 2.35 target · 2.46 current

The forecast logic

Hold efficiency at 2.44, let new-customer revenue and evergreen carry CM

We're tracking to $166,360 contribution margin (actuals through the 17th plus the original goals) — already +$20,933 over the $145,427 plan target, driven by the evergreen beat (returning revenue +18%, +$34,340 vs plan).

Rather than pull spend back, the better forecast is to hold acquisition at a 2.44 aMER (NC ÷ total spend — above the 2.35 target, near today's 2.46) and deploy $84,000 through month-end. That drives +$40,316 of incremental new-customer revenue into the July 4th sale, and with returning demand continuing modestly above plan, lands full-June CM at $172,527 — into the $170–175K zone.

Contribution margin — where this lands

Original target

$145,427

Current trajectory

$166,360

Recommended · 2.44

$172,527

Upside

$174,467

CM measured on the Statlas basis (~37.8% gross margin), which is how the $166,360 trajectory is calculated. The annual fully-loaded model carries ~2.5 pts more cost (~$10K stricter) if you want the conservative read.

Scenarios

Plan / trajectory

$166,360

full-June contribution margin

vs $145K target	+$20,933
Remaining spend	$68,235
NC revenue (rem.)	$164,644
aMER NC÷total	2.41

Actuals + original goals at 2.41 aMER. The current path — strong, but leaves new-customer upside on the table.

Recommended · 2.44RECOMMENDED

$172,527

full-June contribution margin

vs $145K target	+$27,100
Remaining spend	$84,000
NC revenue (rem.)	$204,960
aMER NC÷total	2.44

Hold 2.44 aMER, deploy $84K, push NC into the sale. CM to $172.5K with the efficiency cushion intact.

Upside

$174,467

full-June contribution margin

vs $145K target	+$29,040
Remaining spend	$90,000
NC revenue (rem.)	$219,600
aMER NC÷total	2.44

If the sale + evergreen run hot, $90K at 2.44 reaches ~$174.5K. Greenlight only if Jun 26–28 confirm aMER ≥ 2.44.

Where the spend goes

Father's Day

4 days · 21% of remaining revenue

Total spend	$15,636
Total revenue	$98,548
NC / RC revenue	$38,599 / $59,949
aMER NC÷total	2.47
Avg spend / day	$3,909
vs original spend	+0%

Evergreen Lull

4 days · 13% of remaining revenue

Total spend	$12,480
Total revenue	$61,577
NC / RC revenue	$29,214 / $32,363
aMER NC÷total	2.34
Avg spend / day	$3,120
vs original spend	+0%

July 4th Sale

5 days · 65% of remaining revenue

Total spend	$55,885
Total revenue	$299,369
NC / RC revenue	$137,147 / $162,222
aMER NC÷total	2.45
Avg spend / day	$11,177
vs original spend	+39%

Incremental spend goes into the sale

July 4th (Jun 26–30) carries 65% of remaining revenue on $55,885 — $11,177/day vs. $8,024/day planned (+39%). That's where the added budget drives new customers; the evergreen lull (Jun 22–25) stays at plan so audiences are fresh for the launch.

Recommended daily pacing · Jun 18–30

Date	DoW	Window	Revenue	NC Rev	RC Rev	Spend	aMER	CM
Jun 18	Thu	Father's Day	$73,739	$26,143	$47,596	$10,464	2.50	$17,372
Jun 19	Fri	Father's Day	$6,457	$3,442	$3,015	$1,390	2.48	$1,048
Jun 20	Sat	Father's Day	$7,211	$3,100	$4,111	$1,393	2.23	$1,329
Jun 21	Sun	Father's Day	$11,141	$5,914	$5,227	$2,389	2.48	$1,817
Jun 22	Mon	Evergreen Lull	$19,106	$8,151	$10,955	$3,661	2.23	$3,552
Jun 23	Tue	Evergreen Lull	$13,734	$7,340	$6,394	$2,965	2.48	$2,220
Jun 24	Wed	Evergreen Lull	$15,713	$6,859	$8,854	$3,081	2.23	$2,851
Jun 25	Thu	Evergreen Lull	$13,024	$6,864	$6,160	$2,773	2.48	$2,143
Jun 26	Fri	July 4th Sale	$40,918	$21,340	$19,578	$9,428	2.26	$6,019
Jun 27	Sat	July 4th Sale	$46,243	$21,350	$24,893	$9,432	2.26	$8,025
Jun 28	Sun	July 4th Sale	$61,836	$28,421	$33,415	$11,187	2.54	$12,156
Jun 29	Mon	July 4th Sale	$95,696	$38,413	$57,284	$13,636	2.82	$22,490
Jun 30	Tue	July 4th Sale	$54,676	$27,623	$27,052	$12,202	2.26	$8,438
TOTAL · JUN 18–30			$459,494	$204,960	$254,534	$84,001	2.44	$89,460

aMER = NC ÷ Total Spend (matches your 2.44 target convention). Jun 18 reflects your original forecast (a heavier transition day). RC carries returning demand +7.5% over plan, a conservative read of the +18% MTD beat.

P&L bridge · full June, recommended

Component	Revenue	Spend	Contribution Margin
Actuals · Jun 1–17 Statlas	$429,924	$83,787	$83,068
Forecast · Jun 18–30 @ 37.8% GM, 2.44 aMER	$459,494	$84,001	$89,458
Full June	$889,418	$167,788	$172,527

Remainder gross profit = 37.8% × order revenue (Statlas basis) less ad spend. Actuals carried slightly higher realized margin, which is why banked CM runs ahead of the flat-rate model.

Execution priorities

Forecast and pace to a 2.44 aMER (NC ÷ total spend). That's the governor — above the 2.35 target, so each spend dollar nearly self-funds on new-customer revenue alone, and returning demand converts the rest to margin.
Put the incremental ~$15,765 into the July 4th sale. Ramp from the morning of Fri Jun 26; front-load Sun–Mon (Jun 28–29) where aMER peaks near 2.8.
Hold the evergreen lull (Jun 22–25) at plan. Don't spend into soft pre-sale demand — protect frequency for the launch and keep efficiency at 2.44.
Keep the evergreen engine fed. Returning is +18% to plan and is the single biggest reason CM clears $172K — sustain flow cadence and post-purchase touches.

Watchpoints

aMER is the control variable — hold the line at 2.44. If blended slips toward the 2.65 break-even, pull incremental spend back toward the plan; don't chase volume below efficiency.
Jun 17's apparent dip (low MER) is almost certainly attribution lag on the freshest day — confirm before reacting.
The $172K lands on returning holding ~+7.5% over plan. If it normalizes to plan, CM eases toward the $166,360 trajectory — still well above target.
Only go to the $90K upside if Jun 26–28 confirm sale aMER ≥ 2.44 once attribution settles.

Rosewater Growth | Max RosewaterSTATLAS Calendar Report (Daily), AKC · pulled 2026-06-18