Methodology: July's revenue floor is built from the June 2026 evergreen daily average of $16,079 (non-promo, non-peak days), shaped by an AKC day-of-week curve. Calendar moments layer on top: the July 4 promo holds spend flat at your June end-of-month projected pace ($8,024/day, the Jun 26-30 goal average) across Jul 1-3 with revenue at sale efficiency, then a Jul 4-5 holiday dip; the intro offer (Jul 6-10, +15% over evergreen then trailing to baseline); and Christmas-in-July free shipping (Jul 25-26 only), with spend ramped to $7.5K/day at ~5.0 MER to lean into the moment's efficiency. The 2025 Jul 13-17 sale is NOT repeated, so those days are flattened to the evergreen baseline. aMER = NC Revenue ÷ Total Spend (Bridges convention); Statlas dashboards show NC ÷ Acquisition Spend, which reads higher.
Hero KPIs — Base Scenario (vs July 2025 actuals)
Order Revenue
$608,546
+5% YoY
NC Revenue
$299,540
+21% YoY
Total Spend
$119,999
+16% YoY
aMER / MER
2.50 / 5.07
NC÷Spend · Total÷Spend
Scenario Comparison
Conservative
Order Rev$550,759
NC Rev$271,525
Spend$114,272
aMER2.38
MER4.82
Op Revenue$526,768
Contribution Margin / Profit$88,035 (16.7%)
BASE — Recommended
Order Rev$608,546
NC Rev$299,540
Spend$119,999
aMER2.50
MER5.07
Op Revenue$582,038
Contribution Margin / Profit$103,535 (17.8%)
Aggressive
Order Rev$672,038
NC Rev$330,201
Spend$125,758
aMER2.63
MER5.34
Op Revenue$642,764
Contribution Margin / Profit$121,098 (18.8%)
Base = your 2026 Scenario 1 (MLTO) plan — Order Rev $608,549, Spend $120,000, MER 5.07, aMER 2.5, CM $103,535 (17.79%). Conservative trims demand ~7% and dampens moment lifts ~15%; Aggressive adds ~7% and ~18% stronger moments. Spend on the Jul 1-3 and Jul 25-26 moments is held fixed across scenarios (planned), so revenue — not spend — flexes.
Moment Windows
July 4 Sale + Holiday
Jul 1-5 · 5 days · 21% of month rev
Revenue$129,798
NC Rev$58,411
RC Rev$71,387
Spend$28,550
aMER2.05
| Avg / day | $ |
|---|
| Spend | $5,710 |
| Revenue | $25,960 |
| NC Revenue | $11,682 |
| RC Revenue | $14,277 |
Intro Offer Launch
Jul 6-10 · 5 days · 16% of month rev
Revenue$94,840
NC Rev$52,164
RC Rev$42,676
Spend$17,448
aMER2.99
| Avg / day | $ |
|---|
| Spend | $3,490 |
| Revenue | $18,968 |
| NC Revenue | $10,433 |
| RC Revenue | $8,535 |
Christmas in July (Free Ship)
Jul 25-26 · 2 days · 12% of month rev
Revenue$75,002
NC Rev$34,502
RC Rev$40,500
Spend$15,000
aMER2.30
| Avg / day | $ |
|---|
| Spend | $7,500 |
| Revenue | $37,501 |
| NC Revenue | $17,251 |
| RC Revenue | $20,250 |
Evergreen Days
Jul 11-24, 27-31 · 19 days · 51% of month rev
Revenue$308,906
NC Rev$154,463
RC Rev$154,449
Spend$59,001
aMER2.62
| Avg / day | $ |
|---|
| Spend | $3,105 |
| Revenue | $16,258 |
| NC Revenue | $8,130 |
| RC Revenue | $8,129 |
Forecast — July 2026 Daily Plan (Base)
| Date | DoW | Moment | Revenue | NC Rev | RC Rev | Spend | Acq Spend | aMER | AOV |
|---|
| 7/1 | Wed | JUL 4 | $44,134 | $19,861 | $24,273 | $8,024 | $8,024 | 2.48 | $630 |
| 7/2 | Thu | JUL 4 | $40,121 | $18,055 | $22,066 | $8,024 | $8,024 | 2.25 | $630 |
| 7/3 | Fri | JUL 4 | $24,073 | $10,833 | $13,240 | $8,024 | $8,024 | 1.35 | $630 |
| 7/4 | Sat | JUL 4 | $7,140 | $3,213 | $3,927 | $1,559 | $1,559 | 2.06 | $630 |
| 7/5 | Sun | JUL 4 | $14,330 | $6,449 | $7,881 | $2,919 | $2,919 | 2.21 | $630 |
| 7/6 | Mon | INTRO | $19,387 | $10,663 | $8,724 | $3,555 | $3,555 | 3.00 | $630 |
| 7/7 | Tue | INTRO | $20,528 | $11,291 | $9,237 | $3,764 | $3,764 | 3.00 | $630 |
| 7/8 | Wed | INTRO | $19,958 | $10,977 | $8,981 | $3,659 | $3,659 | 3.00 | $630 |
| 7/9 | Thu | INTRO | $19,437 | $10,691 | $8,746 | $3,564 | $3,564 | 3.00 | $630 |
| 7/10 | Fri | INTRO | $15,530 | $8,542 | $6,988 | $2,906 | $2,906 | 2.94 | $630 |
| 7/11 | Sat | EVERGREEN | $11,900 | $5,950 | $5,950 | $2,273 | $2,273 | 2.62 | $630 |
| 7/12 | Sun | EVERGREEN | $16,859 | $8,430 | $8,429 | $3,220 | $3,220 | 2.62 | $630 |
| 7/13 | Mon | EVERGREEN | $16,859 | $8,430 | $8,429 | $3,220 | $3,220 | 2.62 | $630 |
| 7/14 | Tue | EVERGREEN | $17,850 | $8,925 | $8,925 | $3,409 | $3,409 | 2.62 | $630 |
| 7/15 | Wed | EVERGREEN | $17,354 | $8,678 | $8,677 | $3,315 | $3,315 | 2.62 | $630 |
| 7/16 | Thu | EVERGREEN | $17,354 | $8,678 | $8,677 | $3,315 | $3,315 | 2.62 | $630 |
| 7/17 | Fri | EVERGREEN | $14,379 | $7,190 | $7,189 | $2,746 | $2,746 | 2.62 | $630 |
| 7/18 | Sat | EVERGREEN | $11,900 | $5,950 | $5,950 | $2,273 | $2,273 | 2.62 | $630 |
| 7/19 | Sun | EVERGREEN | $16,859 | $8,430 | $8,429 | $3,220 | $3,220 | 2.62 | $630 |
| 7/20 | Mon | EVERGREEN | $16,859 | $8,430 | $8,429 | $3,220 | $3,220 | 2.62 | $630 |
| 7/21 | Tue | EVERGREEN | $17,850 | $8,925 | $8,925 | $3,409 | $3,409 | 2.62 | $630 |
| 7/22 | Wed | EVERGREEN | $17,354 | $8,678 | $8,677 | $3,315 | $3,315 | 2.62 | $630 |
| 7/23 | Thu | EVERGREEN | $17,354 | $8,678 | $8,677 | $3,315 | $3,315 | 2.62 | $630 |
| 7/24 | Fri | EVERGREEN | $14,379 | $7,190 | $7,189 | $2,746 | $2,746 | 2.62 | $630 |
| 7/25 | Sat | XMAS-JUL | $37,501 | $17,251 | $20,250 | $7,500 | $7,500 | 2.30 | $630 |
| 7/26 | Sun | XMAS-JUL | $37,501 | $17,251 | $20,250 | $7,500 | $7,500 | 2.30 | $630 |
| 7/27 | Mon | EVERGREEN | $16,859 | $8,430 | $8,429 | $3,220 | $3,220 | 2.62 | $630 |
| 7/28 | Tue | EVERGREEN | $17,850 | $8,925 | $8,925 | $3,409 | $3,409 | 2.62 | $630 |
| 7/29 | Wed | EVERGREEN | $17,354 | $8,678 | $8,677 | $3,315 | $3,315 | 2.62 | $630 |
| 7/30 | Thu | EVERGREEN | $17,354 | $8,678 | $8,677 | $3,315 | $3,315 | 2.62 | $630 |
| 7/31 | Fri | EVERGREEN | $14,379 | $7,190 | $7,189 | $2,746 | $2,746 | 2.62 | $630 |
| TOTAL | $608,546 | $299,540 | $309,012 | $119,999 | $119,999 | 2.50 | $630 |
Prior-Year Baseline — July 2025 Actuals
| Date | DoW | Tag | Revenue | NC Rev | RC Rev | Spend | Acq Spend | aMER | AOV |
|---|
| 7/1 | Tue | LY | $42,194 | $15,692 | $26,502 | $6,589 | $5,858 | 2.38 | $630 |
| 7/2 | Wed | LY | $36,702 | $13,980 | $22,722 | $3,342 | $2,883 | 4.18 | $633 |
| 7/3 | Thu | LY | $10,716 | $4,869 | $5,847 | $2,686 | $2,291 | 1.81 | $487 |
| 7/4 | Fri | LY | $5,960 | $3,007 | $2,953 | $2,706 | $2,501 | 1.11 | $372 |
| 7/5 | Sat | LY | $7,459 | $2,434 | $5,026 | $2,986 | $2,609 | 0.82 | $533 |
| 7/6 | Sun | LY | $16,445 | $6,834 | $9,611 | $3,105 | $2,603 | 2.20 | $548 |
| 7/7 | Mon | LY | $20,153 | $8,603 | $11,551 | $3,294 | $2,817 | 2.61 | $695 |
| 7/8 | Tue | LY | $20,554 | $7,551 | $13,002 | $3,150 | $2,788 | 2.40 | $605 |
| 7/9 | Wed | LY | $18,654 | $12,272 | $6,382 | $3,352 | $2,942 | 3.66 | $549 |
| 7/10 | Thu | LY | $17,820 | $8,429 | $9,390 | $3,395 | $2,910 | 2.48 | $575 |
| 7/11 | Fri | LY | $12,250 | $4,645 | $7,605 | $3,071 | $2,742 | 1.51 | $454 |
| 7/12 | Sat | LY | $10,057 | $3,993 | $6,064 | $3,071 | $2,749 | 1.30 | $592 |
| 7/13 | Sun | LY | $25,568 | $10,923 | $14,645 | $5,291 | $4,593 | 2.06 | $624 |
| 7/14 | Mon | LY | $31,342 | $12,746 | $18,597 | $5,103 | $4,460 | 2.50 | $640 |
| 7/15 | Tue | LY | $25,673 | $11,008 | $14,666 | $5,610 | $4,949 | 1.96 | $611 |
| 7/16 | Wed | LY | $29,687 | $14,794 | $14,892 | $5,025 | $4,371 | 2.94 | $521 |
| 7/17 | Thu | LY | $37,777 | $12,188 | $25,588 | $5,166 | $4,421 | 2.36 | $572 |
| 7/18 | Fri | LY | $14,173 | $3,496 | $10,676 | $3,051 | $2,703 | 1.15 | $506 |
| 7/19 | Sat | LY | $7,617 | $2,887 | $4,730 | $2,342 | $1,982 | 1.23 | $544 |
| 7/20 | Sun | LY | $19,498 | $8,183 | $11,315 | $2,373 | $2,015 | 3.45 | $696 |
| 7/21 | Mon | LY | $23,077 | $4,996 | $18,080 | $2,318 | $2,017 | 2.16 | $699 |
| 7/22 | Tue | LY | $8,341 | $2,555 | $5,786 | $2,236 | $1,945 | 1.14 | $491 |
| 7/23 | Wed | LY | $9,213 | $5,275 | $3,938 | $2,241 | $1,893 | 2.35 | $512 |
| 7/24 | Thu | LY | $19,906 | $5,776 | $14,130 | $2,187 | $1,872 | 2.64 | $603 |
| 7/25 | Fri | LY | $7,451 | $722 | $6,730 | $2,357 | $2,054 | 0.31 | $497 |
| 7/26 | Sat | LY | $11,039 | $7,924 | $3,115 | $2,430 | $1,940 | 3.26 | $502 |
| 7/27 | Sun | LY | $12,483 | $6,688 | $5,795 | $2,719 | $2,315 | 2.46 | $520 |
| 7/28 | Mon | LY | $15,311 | $6,110 | $9,201 | $2,750 | $2,309 | 2.22 | $464 |
| 7/29 | Tue | LY | $17,556 | $10,953 | $6,603 | $3,073 | $2,666 | 3.56 | $702 |
| 7/30 | Wed | LY | $25,900 | $18,728 | $7,172 | $3,254 | $2,797 | 5.76 | $632 |
| 7/31 | Thu | LY | $19,110 | $8,668 | $10,443 | $3,594 | $3,056 | 2.41 | $562 |
| TOTAL | $579,686 | $246,929 | $332,757 | $103,867 | — | 2.38 | — |
YoY caution: July 2025 totaled $579,686 but included a Jul 13-17 sale (ran 1.5-2.2× baseline) that is not repeated in 2026. The Base plan ($608,546, +5% YoY) is intentionally below last year on those mid-month days — that gap is the removed sale, smoothed to evergreen.
P&L Lens — Base (MLTO Plan)
| Gross Sales | $603,556 | |
| (Discounts) | ($21,969) | -3.8% |
| Discounted Sales | $581,587 | |
| (Refunds) | ($20,240) | -3.5% |
| Net Sales | $561,347 | |
| + Shipping Revenue | $20,691 | 3.6% |
| + Taxes / Duties | $6,268 | 1.1% |
| Order Revenue | $608,546 | |
| OPERATING REVENUE | $582,038 | |
| (COGS, 45% of Gross) | ($273,846) | -47.0% |
| (Credit Card Processing) | ($17,039) | -2.9% |
| (Fulfillment & Shipping, $70/order) | ($67,619) | -11.6% |
| Total Cost of Delivery | ($358,504) | -61.6% |
| (Total Advertising Spend) | ($119,999) | -20.6% |
| CONTRIBUTION MARGIN / PROFIT | $103,535 | 17.8% |
4-Quarter Accounting (% of Op Rev)
| Cost of Delivery % | 61.59% | |
| Ad Spend % | 20.62% | |
| Profit % | 17.79% | |
Mirrors your 2026 Scenario 1 (MLTO) P&L exactly. Operating Revenue = Net Sales + Shipping (excludes tax) — the base for all margins. COGS accrued at 45% of Gross Sales; fulfillment $70/order; Profit = Contribution Margin (no separate fixed-expense line in this plan).
Execution Priorities
- Front-load the July 4 sale (Jul 1-3). ~21% of the month rides on the first 5 days. Spend is held at your June end-of-month projected pace ($8,024/day) across Jul 1-3 to ride the late-June peak; keep the 15%-off SW promo creative and email/SMS cadence live, then pull spend back for the Jul 4 holiday.
- Intro offer is the swing factor (Jul 6-10). Modeled at only +15% over evergreen because performance is unproven. Watch first-48h CAC/aMER — if it beats plan, shift toward the Aggressive intro path; if it lags, it falls back to baseline with limited downside.
- Christmas-in-July (Jul 25-26 only). Spend ramped to $7.5K/day to lean into the moment's efficiency (~5.0 MER, ~$37,500/day revenue). Free shipping is RC-heavy — lean on the returning base and email/SMS. Watch MER live; if it softens below ~4.0, throttle the extra spend.
- Hold evergreen efficiency. 19 evergreen days at ~MER 4.8 carry the month. This is where June over-delivered — keep spend ~$3,354/day and don't starve the baseline to fund moments.
Watchpoints
- More evergreen, fewer peaks. July has far less peak-day revenue than June ($906,449). The plan leans on consistent baseline performance, not a few big days — variance risk is lower but so is upside.
- Intro-offer uncertainty. If it underperforms evergreen (cannibalizes margin via the free 1lb), revenue holds but CM softens. Track contribution per order, not just top-line.
- No mid-month sale. Jul 13-17 will look weak vs 2025 — that's expected and by design. Don't react by over-spending into a flat demand window.
- Margin is thin at 17.79%. CM holds at plan only if COGS stays at 45% of gross and fulfillment near $70/order. The $7.5K/day Christmas push only pays off if those days hold ~5.0 MER — watch live and throttle if efficiency slips.