Rosewater Growth · Reforecast + Full-Month Daily Tracker

Alaskan King Crab Co — July 2026 Path to $632K

Live actuals through Jul 22 + daily plan Jul 23–31 · Sale runs Fri Jul 24 → Mon Jul 27 · Updated Jul 23, 2026

1 · Landing 2 · Scenarios 3 · Daily tracker (all 31 days)4 · Moment windows 5 · CM bridge 6 · Q&A 7 · Priorities 8 · Watchpoints

Latest changes: Sale moved to Fri Jul 24 → end of day Mon Jul 27 (four days). The five remaining evergreen days (Jul 23, 28–31) are set to realistic day-of-week run rate; the sale window absorbs the remainder to $632K — $111,662, a predictable 1.9× lift over the ~$58.5K those four days would post un-promoted. This report combines the strategic reforecast and the full-month daily tracker in one place.

The one-paragraph read

You've booked $437,838 through Jul 22. To land the month at $632K you need $194,162 across the final 9 days — still $16,519 less than what's loaded in Statlas. The five non-sale days sit at realistic run rate ($82,500 total); the four-day sale carries the rest ($111,662).

On contribution margin, the first three weeks left a ~$16K hole (July 4 sale + intro-offer giveaways ran near breakeven). Because new customers are acquired at roughly first-order breakeven (aMER ~2.6), incremental spend is close to CM-neutral. The realistic strong-CM landing is ~$89.2K (14.1%) — it clears the Conservative scenario ($88K), though the four-day sale running at free-shipping efficiency (aMER 2.5) keeps it just above that floor. Landing between Base and Aggressive on CM isn't reachable from here without returning revenue over-delivering.

Recommended play: hold $632K, run the sale returning-heavy at a disciplined ~$4.8K/day spend, and keep the evergreen bookends efficient (aMER ~3.0). Full-month spend lands at $122.4K — between Base and Aggressive — with the back-9 mix at returning 56% / new 44%.

1Full-month landing — recommended plan

Month-to-date actuals (Jul 1–22) plus the Jul 23–31 plan. aMER = New Revenue ÷ Total Spend (Bridges convention). Statlas "Acquisition MER" uses New ÷ Acquisition spend, which reads higher.

Order Revenue

$632,000

Target · between Base & Aggressive

Total Spend

$122,397

MER 5.16 · aMER 2.59

New / Returning

50 / 50

$316,418 new · $315,581 ret

Contribution Margin

$89,151

14.1% · +$1,116 vs Conservative

2Where this lands vs. the scenarios you built

Revenue sits comfortably between Base and Aggressive. CM is the honest constraint: the soft first three weeks pull the full-month CM% below every original scenario, even with a healthy back nine.

Conservative

Trims demand ~7%, dampens moments ~15%

Order Rev$550,759

New Rev$271,525

Returning$279,234

Spend$114,272

aMER2.38

CM$88,035 · 16.7%

Base MLTO

Mid-range demand, consistent moments

Order Rev$608,546

New Rev$299,540

Returning$309,006

Spend$119,999

aMER2.50

CM$103,535 · 17.8%

Recommended $632K

Hold topline, 4-day sale, lean returning

Order Rev$632,000

New Rev$316,418

Returning$315,581

Spend$122,397

aMER2.59

CM$89,151 · 14.1%

Aggressive

Adds ~7% demand, ~18% stronger moments

Order Rev$672,038

New Rev$330,201

Returning$341,837

Spend$125,758

aMER2.63

CM$121,098 · 18.8%

Recommended revenue is 37% of the way from Base to Aggressive; recommended spend ($122.4K) and new-customer revenue ($316.4K) sit in the same band. The four-day sale runs at free-shipping efficiency (aMER 2.5), so spend is ~$1.3K higher and CM ~$1.3K lower than a shorter sale would give. The CM% gap to Base is still mostly MTD: blended gross margin ran 33.0% vs. the ~34.6% the scenarios assumed.

3Full-month daily tracker — all 31 days

Every day of July on one table: Jul 1–22 are actuals from Statlas; Jul 23–31 are the plan. The cumulative column runs to the $632K target. This is the calendar to reload into Statlas for the back nine (with sale flags on Jul 24–27).

Booked · Jul 1–22 (actual)

$437,838

New $231,278 · Ret $206,559 · Spend $90,816
aMER 2.55 · MER 4.82 · CM $53,748 (12.3%)

Remaining · Jul 23–31 (plan)

$194,162

New $85,140 · Ret $109,022 · Spend $31,581
aMER 2.70 · MER 6.15 · CM $35,403 (18.2%)

Full Month → Target

$632,000

New $316,418 · Ret $315,581 · Spend $122,397
aMER 2.59 · MER 5.16 · CM $89,151 (14.1%)

Actual (Jul 1–22) Plan — Evergreen Plan — Sale (Jul 24–27) Today marker Cum. Rev = running toward $632K

Date	DoW	Moment / Status	Revenue	New Rev	Ret Rev	Spend	aMER	MER	CM	CM%	Cum. Rev
Jul 1	Wed	July 4 SaleActual	$71,177	$32,613	$38,564	$9,996	3.26	7.12	$14,219	20.0%	$71,177
Jul 2	Thu	July 4 SaleActual	$56,980	$24,815	$32,166	$10,667	2.33	5.34	$8,414	14.8%	$128,157
Jul 3	Fri	July 4 SaleActual	$16,035	$6,591	$9,444	$2,245	2.94	7.14	$4,760	29.7%	$144,192
Jul 4	Sat	July 4 SaleActual	$3,498	$2,879	$619	$1,901	1.51	1.84	$-361	-10.3%	$147,690
Jul 5	Sun	July 4 SaleActual	$9,310	$5,509	$3,800	$2,265	2.43	4.11	$403	4.3%	$157,000
Jul 6	Mon	Intro OfferActual	$15,947	$7,974	$7,973	$1,960	4.07	8.14	$1,608	10.1%	$172,947
Jul 7	Tue	Intro OfferActual	$8,550	$5,834	$2,717	$1,814	3.22	4.71	$-3,506	-41.0%	$181,497
Jul 8	Wed	Intro OfferActual	$18,532	$9,442	$9,090	$3,338	2.83	5.55	$3,206	17.3%	$200,029
Jul 9	Thu	Intro OfferActual	$19,516	$10,871	$8,645	$5,551	1.96	3.52	$-2,265	-11.6%	$219,545
Jul 10	Fri	Intro OfferActual	$12,854	$6,917	$5,937	$5,675	1.22	2.27	$-1,176	-9.1%	$232,399
Jul 11	Sat	EvergreenActual	$6,728	$5,207	$1,521	$2,870	1.81	2.34	$-203	-3.0%	$239,127
Jul 12	Sun	EvergreenActual	$16,723	$12,618	$4,105	$3,356	3.76	4.98	$2,298	13.7%	$255,850
Jul 13	Mon	EvergreenActual	$19,695	$8,115	$11,580	$3,493	2.32	5.64	$3,732	18.9%	$275,545
Jul 14	Tue	EvergreenActual	$18,735	$9,633	$9,101	$4,463	2.16	4.20	$2,479	13.2%	$294,280
Jul 15	Wed	EvergreenActual	$15,028	$8,421	$6,607	$4,476	1.88	3.36	$728	4.8%	$309,308
Jul 16	Thu	EvergreenActual	$18,394	$10,263	$8,131	$3,814	2.69	4.82	$1,764	9.6%	$327,702
Jul 17	Fri	EvergreenActual	$17,693	$12,432	$5,261	$3,670	3.39	4.82	$2,634	14.9%	$345,395
Jul 18	Sat	EvergreenActual	$9,522	$6,922	$2,599	$2,594	2.67	3.67	$517	5.4%	$354,917
Jul 19	Sun	EvergreenActual	$11,065	$3,057	$8,008	$2,784	1.10	3.97	$1,090	9.9%	$365,982
Jul 20	Mon	EvergreenActual	$26,855	$11,002	$15,853	$3,648	3.02	7.36	$7,077	26.4%	$392,837
Jul 21	Tue	EvergreenActual	$21,267	$11,505	$9,762	$4,886	2.35	4.35	$2,948	13.9%	$414,104
Jul 22	Wed	EvergreenActual	$23,734	$18,658	$5,076	$5,350	3.49	4.44	$3,382	14.2%	$437,838
Booked to date		Jul 1–22 · actual	$437,838	$231,278	$206,559	$90,816	2.55	4.82	$53,748	12.3%
▼ TODAY — Jul 23 · $437,838 booked · $194,162 to go · 9 days left
Jul 23	Thu	EvergreenPlan	$17,500	$7,875	$9,625	$2,625	3.00	6.67	$3,412	19.5%	$455,338
Jul 24	Fri	Sale · Xmas-in-JulyPlan	$31,000	$13,330	$17,670	$5,332	2.50	5.81	$5,363	17.3%	$486,338
Jul 25	Sat	Sale · Xmas-in-JulyPlan	$24,000	$10,320	$13,680	$4,128	2.50	5.81	$4,152	17.3%	$510,338
Jul 26	Sun	Sale · Xmas-in-JulyPlan	$26,662	$11,465	$15,197	$4,586	2.50	5.81	$4,612	17.3%	$537,000
Jul 27	Mon	Sale · Xmas-in-JulyPlan	$30,000	$12,900	$17,100	$5,160	2.50	5.81	$5,190	17.3%	$567,000
Jul 28	Tue	EvergreenPlan	$16,000	$7,200	$8,800	$2,400	3.00	6.67	$3,120	19.5%	$583,000
Jul 29	Wed	EvergreenPlan	$16,000	$7,200	$8,800	$2,400	3.00	6.67	$3,120	19.5%	$599,000
Jul 30	Thu	EvergreenPlan	$17,500	$7,875	$9,625	$2,625	3.00	6.67	$3,412	19.5%	$616,500
Jul 31	Fri	EvergreenPlan	$15,500	$6,975	$8,525	$2,325	3.00	6.67	$3,022	19.5%	$632,000
Remaining plan		Jul 23–31 · projected	$194,162	$85,140	$109,022	$31,581	2.70	6.15	$35,403	18.2%
FULL MONTH		Actual + plan → target	$632,000	$316,418	$315,581	$122,397	2.59	5.16	$89,151	14.1%

Actuals sourced from the Statlas Calendar Report (through Jul 22). Days 1–5 = July 4 Sale, 6–10 = Intro Offer, 24–27 = Sale (Christmas-in-July, Fri–Mon), all other remaining days = Evergreen. Negative early-month CM (Jul 4, 7, 9, 10, 11) reflects the July 4 sale + intro-offer giveaway margin — the source of the ~$16K MTD CM gap. Back-9 daily average: $21,574 revenue on $3,509 spend.

4Moment windows — the sale and the bookends

Sale · Christmas-in-July (Free Shipping)

Fri Jul 24 → Mon Jul 27 · 4 days · 58% of back-9 revenue

Total Revenue$111,662

New Revenue$48,015

Returning Revenue$63,647

Total Spend$19,206

Window aMER · MER2.50 · 5.81

Lift vs. un-promoted1.9× (+$53,162)

Average / day

Spend$4,802

Revenue$27,916

New Rev$12,004

Ret Rev$15,912

Evergreen Bookends

Jul 23 + Jul 28–31 · 5 days · 42% of back-9 revenue

Total Revenue$82,500

New Revenue$37,125

Returning Revenue$45,375

Total Spend$12,375

Window aMER · MER3.00 · 6.67

Set at DoW run rate$15.5–17.5K/day

Average / day

Spend$2,475

Revenue$16,500

New Rev$7,425

Ret Rev$9,075

Sale window revenue is the residual after grounding the five evergreen days — a 1.9× lift over the ~$58.5K those four days would post un-promoted (Fri $16K · Sat $10K · Sun $12.5K · Mon $20K, from recent day-of-week actuals). Evergreen runs aMER ~3.0; the sale runs aMER 2.5 by design (free shipping trades margin for volume) — throttle sale spend if MER drops below 4.0.

5Contribution-margin bridge — why $89.2K, not $103.5K

Full-month CM is two pieces: what already happened (soft) and what the back nine adds (healthy at 18.2% CM) — which can't offset the front-half drag, and the four-day sale trims it slightly vs. a shorter promo.

Component	Revenue	Gross Margin	Ad Spend	Contribution Margin
Booked · Jul 1–22 (actual)	$437,838	33.0%	$90,816	$53,748
Plan · Jul 23–31 (this plan)	$194,162	34.5%	$31,581	$35,403
Full month — Recommended	$632,000	33.5%	$122,397	$89,151

vs Base CM ($103,535)

−$14,384

Front-half margin drag, not the back nine

vs Conservative CM ($88,035)

+$1,116

The realistic ceiling from here

MTD CM vs goal

−$16,042

$53.7K actual vs $69.8K goal (−23%)

6Answers to Sarah's three questions

1 · Can we reforecast the calendar so Statlas isn't misleadingly red?

Yes — and it should come down, not up. Statlas has the aggressive load (~$685K of daily goals) running against a $632K target, so every day reads red against a number we don't need to hit. Reload Jul 23–31 with Section 3's daily targets ($194,162 total, down from $210,681) — and move the sale flags to Jul 24–27. The month only needs a $21,574/day average from here.

2 · Should more of the number come from returning vs. new? More retargeting budget?

Yes on returning. The back-nine mix is deliberately 56% returning / 44% new (vs. 53% new MTD), landing the full month at ~50/50. At aMER ~2.6 acquisition is first-order breakeven, so returning dollars are the higher-CM dollars — and a free-shipping sale over-indexes returning, which is why the four sale days lean 57% returning. Put the incremental effort into email/SMS to the file, not paid retargeting: Facebook non-acquisition has posted several negative-ROAS days this month (Jul 4, 18, 19).

3 · The creative demand model showed ~100 ads for MLTO — what's the number for this plan?

This plan's new-customer revenue ($316,418) sits ~57% of the way from Base to Aggressive, so creative volume should scale similarly — modestly above the ~100 MLTO figure, but short of the full aggressive ask. We're holding acquisition near plan and winning on efficiency, which leans on refreshing winners plus a dedicated sale creative set for Jul 24–27. I can re-run the creative demand model against the $632K / $316.4K-new inputs for the exact count — say the word.

7Execution priorities — the back nine

The sale is the month (Jul 24–27). Four days at ~$4,800/day spend carry 58% of the back-nine revenue at a ~1.9× lift. Launch Friday and closing Monday are the peaks — creative refresh and the email/SMS sale sequence must be live for both. Saturday is the expected trough; don't over-spend into it.
Run the sale returning-heavy, and throttle on efficiency. Target MER ~5.8, returning > new. Free shipping already gives back margin, so cut sale spend the moment MER drops below 4.0 rather than chasing volume at a loss.
Keep the evergreen bookends efficient (Jul 23, 28–31). Five days at aMER ~3.0 and DoW run rate. Jul 28–29 are set a touch soft on purpose (post-sale pull-forward) — hold the efficiency there rather than spending to force revenue back up.
Hold the line on topline, not on spend. Because acquisition is ~CM-neutral, spending to the $632K commitment barely moves margin. If a day runs cold, backfill with the owned-channel returning push rather than buying inefficient volume.

8Watchpoints

The sale now carries 58% of the back nine. Extending to four days concentrates more of the month in the promo — but spread Fri–Mon, not a two-day spike. Launch (Fri) and close (Mon) are load-bearing; a soft launch is the single biggest risk to $632K. Lock creative and the email/SMS sequence before Friday.
Returning is the swing factor. The plan assumes back-9 returning of $109,022. If it holds the −9.7% MTD trend (~$98K), we'd need ~$96K of new (spend ~$35.6K) to still hit $632K, trimming CM to ~$85.1K (13.5%). The sale's returning delivery is what closes this gap.
Post-sale hangover (Jul 28–29). Tue/Wed are set at $16K to reflect demand pulled forward into the sale. If the sale pulls harder than modeled, those days can dip below $16K — watch them and don't panic-spend to prop them up.
CM% will read low all month. 14.1% full-month vs. 17.8% Base — expected, driven by the July 4 / intro-offer window plus the four-day free-shipping sale, not a back-nine execution problem. Frame it for the client: revenue is on-target, margin was set in weeks 1–3.

Alaskan King Crab Co · July 2026 reforecast + daily tracker (combined) · Rosewater Growth. Actuals from Statlas Calendar Report (through Jul 22). Scenario baselines from the July 2026 Forecast Scenarios report. aMER = New Rev ÷ Total Spend (Bridges convention). Gross margin = revenue less cost of delivery (COGS ~45% of gross, fulfillment ~$70/order, ~3% processing); back-nine held at 34.5% per the Statlas plan basis. CM = gross profit − total ad spend. Sale revenue is the residual after grounding the five evergreen days at day-of-week run rate.