Alaskan King Crab Co. · August 2026 Daily Plan

$717,210 of order revenue on $153,558 of media

A most-likely-to-occur projection. Every day built from what July 2026 has actually produced, efficiency stepped down for the move into August, returning revenue held to its own trend, and the Labor Day window shaped around the Thursday shipping cut-off.

Three Scenarios

Each scenario takes one observed July window and uses it for everything — the daily spend rate, the efficiency it earned, and the returning run-rate it produced. The Labor Day window is identical in all three. Base is the recommendation.

What an ordinary day is worth right now

The B4G1 lb-free intro offer went live in early July. It changed both the level and the shape of an ordinary trading day, so August is built off the post-offer run-rate rather than off last August.

July's trajectory is upward on efficiency as well as volume — $15,460/day in the second week at 2.18x, $24,256/day in the last full week at 2.91x. The Base plan does not extrapolate that. It holds August flat at the two-week average, the most recent level the business has sustained for longer than seven days.

August is planned below July's efficiency, deliberately

July's evergreen days have run at 2.70x. Carrying that straight into August would be the single most optimistic assumption in the plan, so it is stepped down.

Two independent reads land within a point and a half of each other, so the step-down is applied at -10.2% across every day type. Blended across the month the plan runs at 2.46x — against 2.50x last August and 2.66x across the trailing three months of this year. Spend is derived after the step-down, which is why it rises: the same revenue costs more to buy at a lower multiple.

Monday to Thursday carries the week

Measured across the three full weeks of the offer era, detrended so the month's upward drift does not contaminate the shape, then smoothed toward a clean weekday / weekend structure.

Across July's offer era Monday to Thursday traded +30.2% above Friday to Sunday. That is the Thursday shipping cut-off doing its work: an order placed Monday through Thursday ships that week, an order placed Friday onward waits. Customers have learned it, and it shows up in the numbers every week.

The raw weekly index is noisy — three observations per day, with a Saturday running anywhere from 0.50 to 1.13 of its week. So the plan uses a smoothed version: the observed index blended halfway toward a clean two-level weekday / weekend structure, then pulled 55% of the way back toward flat. The result keeps the real signal — a +15.4% weekday premium — without pretending three Saturdays tell us what every Saturday does. Evergreen days land in a $16,748 to $22,832 band rather than swinging across a $17,000 range.

Built from the daily run-rate, not from a growth rate

Returning revenue is not driven by media spend, so it is forecast separately — and it is built the same way the rest of the plan is: from what a day has actually been producing.

The year-on-year figure at the bottom of that table is an output. Nothing in the model was set to -8.3% — the plan takes $8,986 a day, which is what the returning file has actually produced across the last two weeks of July, applies the weekday curve to it, and adds the returning lift a promotion of this size has historically pulled. That it lands between your two recent reads is the check that the build is honest, not the input that made it so.

Father's Day scale, reshaped for a weekend

Every promotional window since August 2025, measured against the evergreen baseline running immediately before it.

Labor Day itself is 7 September, so only the opening five days fall in August and the deadline pressure — with it the peak — lands in September. 31 August is modelled as the strongest in-month day because Monday is both the best trading day of the week and the first day after the weekend cut-off clears.

The month in four blocks

Per-day averages are the pacing targets. If a window is running below its daily average by day three, that is the signal to act.

August 2025, day by day

The reference year. Two promotional windows — end of summer 17–21 and Labor Day 27–31.

What the plan is worth

Margins are calculated on operating revenue — net sales plus shipping, excluding the tax pass-through — per Bridges.

Priorities

1. Protect the intro offer's evergreen performance. 69.9% of the month's revenue and 70.5% of new-customer revenue comes from the 26 non-promotional days. Anything that dilutes the B4G1 offer costs more than the Labor Day window is worth.
2. Pace to the daily target, not the monthly one. Base needs $19,277 a day through 26 August. Two consecutive days more than 20% under that is a real signal; a single soft Saturday is not.
3. Open Labor Day hot on Thursday 27 August. The plan has the window opening at $51,000 — the last day orders still ship that week. That requires the teaser to have done its job and the full send calendar live from day one. Every day of delay pushes volume into the Friday–Sunday trough, where it is worth roughly $16,000 less.
4. Fund the window to its shape, not flat. $43,769 across five days, but weighted — $9,067 on the Thursday open and $11,121 on the Monday close against $7,364 on the Saturday. Flat pacing spends into the trough.
5. Hold the ten-day trigger for Stretch. Decide by 10 August. Releasing the extra $14,677 in the last week cannot buy back the evergreen days already gone.

Where this plan could be wrong

• Returning revenue leans on a five-day promotional lift. 30.8% of the month's returning revenue comes from the Labor Day window, at the 2.33x lift Father's Day produced. If Labor Day pulls the file less hard — it has no gifting occasion behind it — every 0.2x of shortfall costs about $8,986.
• The evergreen returning run-rate could still be falling. The plan holds $8,986 a day flat through 26 August. Your last-14-day read is softer than your last-29-day read, which is the direction of travel. A further 5% of decay costs $11,751.
• 27 August opening at $51,000 is the most aggressive line in the plan. Every observed moment has opened at 0.5–0.75x its own window peak. This one opens at 0.96x, on the argument that a Thursday open with the teaser already sent behaves differently from a cold weekend launch. If it opens conventionally the window loses roughly $15,300.
• The efficiency step-down could be too generous or not generous enough. -10.2% is the average of two independent reads. Spend is held, so every further 0.10x of decay costs $15,356 of new-customer revenue straight off the top line.
• The two-week baseline includes a strong close. 25–28 July ran $27k–$32k a day. If that was a one-off, August tracks closer to Conservative — $676,650 and $65,127 of contribution margin.
• Cost of delivery is held at plan, not at actual. July ran 67.7% against a 66.5% plan. If the return rate does not recover, contribution margin drops about $8,525 across the month.