Built for a monthly output floor of 150 launched ads — and deliberately steered by outside category, competitive and audience data, not just the account's own history. The number that matters is the mix: hold the proportions and the volume takes care of itself.
150 is a floor, not a ceiling. Every target below is a % of total output. Three of the ten persona lanes do not exist in the account today — they were sourced from outside research precisely so the plan stops recycling what Meta already told us worked.
August runs a dense moment calendar — end of summer, football pre-seed, the birthday peak, and a Labor Day flight that needs re-dating — and it opens three creative lanes the account has never run. Every ad is a Moment or it's Evergreen.
Stop selling the discount and start selling the substitution. The account's efficiency today comes from offers — Offer Only 6.05x, Urgency 4.67x, Promo 3.81x vs No Offer 2.55x — which is a strong short game and a fragile long one. Meanwhile the largest verified demand signal outside the account is that 50% of consumers are cutting seafood at restaurants while restaurant traffic falls 2.0% and spend-per-visit rises. That demand is relocating to kitchens. August's job is to be the place it lands: the invented occasion, the rented lake house, provenance and price-math — four territories where AKC's own spend is effectively zero and its competitors are already moving.
Unique ads launched per month, de-duplicated across landing-page variants. The program changed in April — output went from ~11–38/month to 84–172 when the testing engine turned on. All figures are launched ads, the same unit everywhere in this deck.
The machine has proven it ships 150–170/month since April, so the floor should sit inside proven capacity rather than above it — the constraint this month is mix, not volume. Fourteen percent of output goes to lanes with no prior creative, and another 29 points of output shift from video to statics. Setting the floor at 150 buys the room to make those changes properly instead of pushing a vanity number and filling it with more of what already exists.
* JUL = actual through 7/27 · † AUG = the 150 floor · spend line = Meta $K · source: Supermetrics FB Ads, ad-level, Nov 2025 – Jul 2026.
Anna's taxonomy stays the spine — Gifter, Host, Splurger, First Timer, Foodie, plus the Skeptic and Repeat lanes the ad names already carry. What changes is the weighting, and what gets added. Spend share today is not a demand signal; it is a record of what got briefed. Every net-new lane below is anchored to a Motion tag that currently holds zero spend and an outside data point the account could never have surfaced on its own.
| Lane · what changes | Share today | Aug output |
|---|---|---|
| Host / Social HostBest-returning established lane (3.85–3.90x) and the one outside research is loudest about — at-home entertaining rose from 47% to 57% of adults in a year, led by under-40s. Absorbs the football sub-lane, which no tracked competitor is running. | 18.5% of paid · 24.6% Motion tagTODAY | 21%OF AUG OUTPUT |
| GifterOver-concentrated. Biggest spend line, second-worst return, and Perfect Gift is the #1 messaging angle at a below-blend 2.33x. Normalized down 10 points: what stays goes to the Aug/Sept birthday peak rather than generic gifting, and three points move across to the Occasion Maker. | 23.4% of paid @ 1.86xTODAY | 13%OF AUG OUTPUT |
| First TimerWorst-performing audience in the account, funded like a priority. This is a message failure — Free Product, the lane's dominant offer angle, runs 1.83x. Volume down 4 points and the hook resets onto measured barriers: waste fear (55%) and selection anxiety (44%). | 15.1% of paid · Motion tag 1.34xTODAY | 11%OF AUG OUTPUT |
| Repeat Buyer / LoyalistThe whitespace hiding in plain sight. Two ads carry the Repeat Customers tag at 7.33x while Returning Customers, Loyalty Members, High Value Customers and Premium Food Buyers all sit at zero creative. August's mechanics are loyalty points, grade upgrade and reorder timing — not July's one-off shipping offer. | 7.5% of paid · Motion tag 7.33xTODAY | 11%OF AUG OUTPUT |
| The three new lanesRelocated Diner (6%), Occasion Maker (6%), Vacation House (6%). Each is sourced from outside data the account cannot see — restaurant-substitution behavior, occasion and group-dining behavior, and short-term-rental demand — and each maps onto Motion tags sitting at zero or near-zero spend. | 0.2% of paid todayTODAY | 18%OF AUG OUTPUT |
Spend share is a mirror; output share is a correction. Gifter takes the most spend at the second-worst return and gives back eight points. Repeat Buyer returns 7.33x on two ads and gains 3.5. And 14% goes to lanes that have never been briefed — because a model built only on first-party data can only ever recommend more of what already ran. That is the siloing this deck is designed to break.
The first decision on any brief. A Moment ad is built for a dated window and retired when it closes. An Evergreen ad runs always-on against a persona's durable pain. The split is the target proportion of total output.
If a brief can't name the dated offer it's for, it's Evergreen — and it should lead with a persona pain, not a discount. Promo creative runs 3.81x against 2.55x for No Offer right now, which is exactly why the cap matters: an account that lives on offer creative has no answer for the weeks between sales, and every one of this month's new lanes is an evergreen answer.
Each window's share of the ~45 moment ads, weighted to revenue impact. Football enters as a new window: it is on the calendar as a theme but has never had dedicated creative.
| Window · what's in it | % of moments | IMG / VID |
|---|---|---|
| 1Last Call for SummerFLAGSHIPAug 24 – Sep 3. The calendar's 'Labor Day Promo' flight, renamed. 2026 gives the longest unofficial summer on record (May 25 → Sep 7, 105 days) — that is the hook, and it is factually ownable. Offer-first banners plus urgency; Offer Only returns 6.05x and Urgency 4.67x. | 35.6%≈16 ADS | 7 / 9 |
| 2Labor Day + College Football Wk 1built in Aug · flights Sep 3–7. ⚠ Labor Day 2026 is Mon Sep 7, and CFB Week 1 is the same weekend. One merged moment, not two. Klaviyo has LDW ecommerce +8% with Monday itself +10% — keep spend live through the 7th. Assets are built in August; the flight runs into September. | 20.0%≈9 ADS | 4 / 5 |
| 3Football Kickoff · pre-seedNEWAug 6 – Aug 29. HOF game Aug 6, preseason Aug 13–29, CFB Week 0 Aug 27–29. No real game-day demand in August — this is anticipation and freezer-stocking, not watch-party creative. Not one of nine tracked competitors has football creative live. | 17.8%≈8 ADS | 3 / 5 |
| 4August / September BirthdaysAug 5 · Aug 24 – Sep 9. August is the #1 US birth month (322K births) and nine of the ten most common individual birthdays fall in September, peaking Sep 9. Birthday creative already returns 2.44x on $32.8K. Runs late, not early. Zero competitors merchandise birthday gifting. | 15.5%≈7 ADS | 3 / 4 |
| 5Don't Waste The WeekendJul 30 + Aug weekends. The recurring weekend-urgency beat. Short, disposable, offer-adjacent — pairs with the school-start split: Sun Belt districts start Aug 10, most of NY/NJ/PA return after Labor Day. Geo-split the copy, not the concept. | 11.1%≈5 ADS | 2 / 3 |
| Σ All Moments | 100% ≈45 ADS | 19 / 26 |
Labor Day fell on Sep 1 in 2025 and lands on Sep 7 in 2026 — the latest date it can. The calendar's "Labor Day Promo" runs Aug 28 – Sep 3, which ends four days before Labor Day weekend begins (Fri Sep 4 – Mon Sep 7), with the last-chance email stack landing Sep 3. Klaviyo has Labor Day weekend ecommerce at +8% YoY with Monday itself at +10%. Recommendation: rename Aug 24 – Sep 3 to Last Call for Summer, and run a separate Labor Day + College Football Week 1 flight Sep 3–7. Every YoY comparison for these dates should be aligned on days-to-Labor-Day, not calendar dates.
SCHEDULING · Football pre-seed opens Aug 6 (HOF game) · birthday flight runs late, Aug 24 → Sep 9 · Last Call assets approved by Aug 21 to be live Aug 24 (two weeks out is when consumers plan) · nothing "Labor Day"-branded built to die on Sep 3.
The share of total output each lane should get. Ad counts (at the 150 floor) shown for reference — scale to actual volume. Gold = net-new lanes. No lane exceeds 21%: the top-heavy 23.4% Gifter concentration is the thing this table is correcting.
| Persona / lane | % of output | Share | # at 150 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Host / Social HostLEAN IN | 21% | 32 ads | |
| GifterNORMALIZED | 13% | 19 ads | |
| Foodie / Seafood Enthusiast | 10% | 15 ads | |
| First TimerNORMALIZED | 11% | 17 ads | |
| Repeat Buyer / LoyalistLEAN IN | 11% | 16 ads | |
| Splurger / Self-Treater | 10% | 15 ads | |
| Skeptic / Price Objector | 6% | 9 ads | |
| The Relocated DinerNEW LANE | 6% | 9 ads | |
| The Occasion MakerNEW LANE | 6% | 9 ads | |
| The Vacation HouseNEW LANE | 6% | 9 ads | |
| Total | 100% | 150 floor |
The six lanes the account already runs, re-weighted. Each % is anchored to Motion 90-day performance or the ad-level Supermetrics read — with outside research used to explain why the number should move, not to invent it.
The efficiency winner in the account and the only lane where outside research and first-party data point the same direction. Motion's Social Hosts tag runs 3.85x on 24.6% of spend; the ad-name read puts Host at 3.90x. Outside: at-home entertaining jumped from 47% to 57% of adults in a year, led by Millennials (+16 pts) and Gen Z (+14). August adds football — and not one competitor in the tracked set has football creative live. Host carries the game-day sub-lane.
The account's biggest spend line at its second-worst return: 23.4% of 90d spend at 1.86x, with Motion's Perfect Gift angle taking the #1 messaging slot at 2.33x — below the 2.46x account blend. This is over-concentration, not demand. Share comes down 10 points; what stays gets re-pointed at the one gifting fact that is genuinely seasonal (August is the #1 US birth month, densest cluster Sept 9 ±5 days) and three of the freed points move to the Occasion Maker, where the same buyer converts at 4.72x under the Celebrators tag.
Trimmed two points to fund the Vacation House — 13.5% of spend at a below-blend 2.40x. Changes device more than it changes size. Motion says Massive Size runs 2.54x and Superior Quality 2.46x, both around blend; the unused levers are Sensory Appeal (zero spend) and ASMR (3.98x on two ads, $879). FMI's read on the heavy seafood buyer — 54% male, 51% Millennial/Gen Z, 40% multicultural — is the casting correction for this lane.
The account's weakest audience and it is being fed hard: 15.1% of spend at 2.00x by ad name, and Motion's First Time Customers tag is the single worst segment in the account at 1.34x. The problem is the message, not the volume — Free Product runs 1.83x, the worst large angle. Cut share 4 points and swap the offer-led hook for the two barriers the research actually measures: waste fear (55%) and 'I don't know how to buy it' (44%).
The loudest small signal in the account: Motion's Repeat Customers tag runs 7.33x on $1,126 across two ads, and four adjacent tags — Returning Customers, Loyalty Members, High Value Customers, Premium Food Buyers — have literally zero creative behind them. Share goes from 7.5% to 11%. One caveat that matters: the top-ranked reorder creative carried July's one-time free-shipping offer, so the reorder framing is what transfers, not that offer. August's mechanics are loyalty points (3.58x), grade upgrade and reorder timing.
Reliable and correctly sized — 11.3% of spend at 2.54x, with Treat Yourself at 2.82x and the Insense self-treat creators (MSGREENEBEAUTY, BLOGOFSALT) posting the highest thumbstop rates in the account at 43–48%. Holds share. The macro backdrop supports it: BofA card spend ran +6.3% YoY in June 2026, the strongest in four years — this is a reallocation market, not a scarcity-of-money market.
These 36 ads — 24% of the month — are the anti-siloing budget. Each one starts from a category, competitive or audience fact that exists entirely outside Meta, and each maps onto a Motion tag holding zero or near-zero spend. First-party data can rank what already ran; it cannot nominate what was never briefed.
Small, efficient, under-armed. Skeptical Buyers runs 3.02x and Better Value Than Restaurants 3.35x on 2.2% of spend — both above blend. What is missing is ammunition: Price Anchor as a hook tactic has zero spend, and nobody in the tracked competitive set defends a price with math. The dock price ($19.94/lb ex-vessel, ~3x 2013) and the total-quota fact (2.68M lb for the entire country) are the two hardest numbers available.
The biggest outside-research bet in the model. McKinsey has seafood as the #3 category consumers cut at restaurants (50%); Black Box has May 2026 restaurant traffic at -2.0% while same-store sales rose +1.8% — people are going out less and spending more when they do. That demand does not evaporate, it relocates. Maps directly onto Motion's Superior Alternative angle, which has never been run.
Date night in, and the invented reasons to gather. This is the lane the account's own tags are already begging for: Celebrators runs 4.72x — the third-best audience in the account — and Special Occasion Elevation 3.44x, while Couples sits at 1.1% of spend across six ads and Dinner Planners has zero creative. Outside: OpenTable has 61% saying 2026 dining out is special-occasion rather than habitual and group reservations of 6+ up 11%, and Black Box has upscale casual as the #1 restaurant segment two months running while fine dining lags. King crab isn't a weeknight protein — it's the reason the night is a night.
Anna's calendar already asks for this — "Summer Travels: AKC will meet you there." The rented lake house, mountain house or cabin, and the fact you can have restaurant-grade king crab overnighted to an address you don't live at. Ohio State (n=502, peer-reviewed) puts grocery spend at $34/day during a rental stay with ~80% eating at least one meal a day in the house, while 98% still eat out — so this is a substitution play for the one night they'd otherwise blow $400 on a mediocre tourist-town restaurant. The AOV proof: 6+ bedroom rentals are the fastest-growing size class at +12.61% YoY.
Each one passes the same three-part test: (1) a named outside source quantifies the demand — McKinsey on restaurant substitution, OpenTable on occasion and group dining, Ohio State and AirDNA on vacation-rental behaviour, FMI on price as the #1 stated barrier; (2) the account has a Motion tag for it sitting at zero or near-zero spend, so it is a gap and not a duplicate; (3) no tracked competitor is running it, so we are not entering a crowded message. Anything that failed a leg of that test stayed out.
Ads are allocated at this level so every brief targets a specific human, not a category. These 43 ads — 29% of the month — are where the differentiation actually lives. Every one maps to a Motion tag currently holding zero or near-zero spend.
| Sub-lane | # ads |
|---|---|
| The Reorder PromptThe reorder framing is the account's strongest signal — but the top-ranked reorder creative carried July's one-time free-shipping offer, so rebuild it on always-true mechanics: 'you're due,' the restock-your-freezer beat, and reorder timing off last purchase date. | 5 |
| YPO / Loyalty Points PushDouble Points returns 3.58x on $5.4K and is a standing programme, not a one-off. Loyalty Members and High Value Customers are zero-spend audience tags. Member-only framing, no sitewide discount. | 4 |
| Colossal / Grade UpgradeSell up, not out. The Repeat Customers tag runs 7.33x; 45–54 and 55–64 male already convert at 2.70–2.76x on the largest spend lines in the account. Size-count and grade education, not price. | 4 |
| Win-Back the LapsedThe Returning Customers tag has zero creative behind it. Order-anniversary and 'it's been a year' framing — the cheapest audience the account owns and it is not being spoken to. | 3 |
| Σ Repeat Buyer / Loyalist | 16 |
| Lane | # ads |
|---|---|
| The Relocated DinerTable-level math, not per-person: four at a steakhouse is $1,000–2,100; four at your table is one order. McKinsey has 50% of consumers cutting seafood at restaurants and Black Box has traffic -2.0% while spend per visit rose. Maps to Superior Alternative — never run. | 9 |
| The Occasion MakerDate night in (4) · invent the occasion (3) · the table of six (2). Celebrators already runs 4.72x and Special Occasion Elevation 3.44x, while Couples sits at 1.1% of spend and Dinner Planners at zero. OpenTable: 61% call 2026 dining out special-occasion, 6+ reservations up 11%. | 9 |
| The Vacation HouseThe one night in (3) · lake & mountain house (2) · the big group rental (2) · ship-ahead (2). Airbnb spent 2026 teaching this behaviour — Instacart in 25+ cities and CookUnity meal bundles from $15 — but nobody has claimed the centrepiece. Shipped Overnight already returns 2.82x on 5.4% of spend. | 9 |
| Σ The three new lanes | 27 |
The specific humans inside the core lanes. These are briefing lenses, not budget lines — they share their parent lane's share. Five of the six came from outside research rather than the ad account.
Online buyers lose the fishmonger. Be the fishmonger. A recurring named persona answering the exact question you'd have asked in person — endlessly variable, cheap to produce, and directly modelled on the one thing Fulton Fish Market is winning with.
Bigger than the knowledge barrier (44%) and rivals price. At a $731 AOV, 'what if I ruin it' is catastrophic-loss framing. Frozen literally solves it: cook one leg at a time, on your schedule. This is the product truth the account never says out loud.
First broadcast of the season lands mid-week, which breaks the weekend hosting pattern entirely. And zero of the nine tracked competitors — including Omaha Steaks — has any football creative live as of July 28.
322K August births, and nine of the ten most common individual birthdays fall in September. Birthday creative already returns 2.44x on $32.8K unaided. Runs late-August into early September, stacked on the Labor Day / kickoff weekend.
NRF has back-to-school at a record $43.3B, and 62% had started buying by early July. Parents of school-age kids have a quantified competing claim in August; households without them do not. Over-index the no-kids and post-kids host.
The fastest-growing rental markets are the landlocked ones — Jackson Hole is the #1 US summer 2026 market at 45.5% booked occupancy, and Midwest short-term-rental occupancy is up 16.4% YoY. The Landlocked Seafood Lovers tag has one ad against it. Distance-from-the-ocean is the whole premise and it has never been briefed properly.
Counter Guy and Waste-Averse Buyer front First Timer and Skeptic · Wednesday-Night Fan and Empty-Nest Host live inside Host · Birthday Sender is where Gifter's normalized share goes · Landlocked Obsessive bridges Foodie and the Vacation House. Every concept in the companion Creative Plan workbook names one where it applies.
The % of output aimed at each funnel stage, with the 90-day ROAS that justifies it. ROAS is a spend-weighted blend of the Motion hook-tactic tags that map to each stage — the closest proxy the account has to a funnel-position signal.
| Awareness stage | Aug % | 90d ROAS | Verdict | The recommendation, and why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unaware | 12% | 2.44x | hold, swap the device | Curiosity (2.77x), Shocking Statement (1.97x) and Aspirational (2.27x) carry this stage today and the blend sits below account. The Vacation House lives here; the unused devices — Sensory Appeal, ASMR (3.98x on two ads) — are the fix. |
| Problem Aware | 20% | 2.65x | lean in | The most under-worked territory in the account. FMI measures the real barriers: 55% limit seafood purchases over waste fear, 44% don't know how to select it. And 50% of consumers say seafood is a category they cut at restaurants. Frozen answers all three — stop defending it, attack with it. |
| Solution Aware | 26% | 2.80x | lean in — biggest bucket | Premium AOV means comparison shopping, and this is where the price gets defended. Explainer returns 3.47x on $2.9K and Fulton Fish Market is building its entire program on it. Us Vs Them runs 3.10x. The provenance stack lives here too. |
| Product Aware | 20% | 2.37x | hold, raise the bar | Bold Claim (2.05x) and Social Proof (1.90x) together absorb $34.7K below blend. Size, grade, count and the 'it arrives already cooked' truth are the assets. Note the distinction: overnight delivery is a product fact (Shipped Overnight, 2.82x) — free shipping was a one-time July promo and is not an August lever. |
| Most Aware | 22% | 4.94x | lean (offer), then cap | Offer Only 6.05x and Urgency 4.67x are the two best hook tactics in the account, and Promo out-earns No Offer 3.81x vs 2.55x on near-identical spend. August's flight calendar earns the bump — but an account that lives on offer creative collapses when the sale ends. Capped at 22%. |
Format signals awareness regardless of the tag — a relatable creator UGC functionally meets a cold viewer no matter what theme it carries. Use these percentages to brief the balance of the funnel, not as a contract on every ad. And Most Aware's 4.94x is offer-inflated: it is measuring July 4th (5.96x) as much as it is measuring a funnel stage. It normalizes in September.
Mapping — Unaware: Curiosity / Shocking Statement / Aspirational · Problem: Relatability / Question / Contrast / Confession · Solution: If Then / How To / Explainer · Product: Directive / Bold Claim / Social Proof / Demographic Callout · Most Aware: Urgency / Offer Only. Source: Motion 90d, n=300.
Spend share and ROAS are trailing-90d Motion asset-type and visual-format data. The August Target is each format's share of output, not spend. steel = video · coral = image.
| Format | 90d spend share | ROAS | Aug target | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UGC Video (creator-led) vid | 3.20x | 34% | The reach engine — but 73% of spend in one asset type is concentration risk. Hold the machine, cut the share | |
| UGC Mashup vid | 2.25x | 8% | Weakest meaningful type. Trim and re-point at Repeat/Loyalty — the 7.63x ad is a mashup | |
| Expert Explainer / "Counter Guy" vid | — | 8% | ZERO spend today. 39% of buyers ask the counter for advice; Fulton owns this territory. Take it | |
| Brand / Founder / High Production vid | 2.03x | 5% | Tested at 2.03x and not landing — but the Vacation House hero needs it. Hold small, new brief | |
| Lifestyle Image with Text img | 3.47x | 18% | Beats UGC on efficiency at a seventh of the spend. Underfed — double it | |
| Product Image with Text img | 3.40x | 10% | Same story. Size / grade / count statics for Product Aware. Grow | |
| Offer-First Banner img | 4.11x | 6% | Best efficiency at real scale (4.11x on $20.4K). Own every dated asset | |
| GIF / Motion img | 2.94x | 6% | Above blend on scraps. 10x the output — dated, disposable, cheap | |
| Carousel img | 0.00x | 5% | $389 across 19 ads = never actually tested. Give it a real budget | |
| IMAGE family | 15.8% spend · 3.40–3.47x | strong | → 45% | Underfed vs efficiency → rebalance up |
| VIDEO family | 84.2% spend · 3.20x (UGC) | mixed | → 55% | Over-indexed → hold volume, cut share |
UGC takes 73% of spend at 3.20x while every static family beats it — Lifestyle 3.47x, Product 3.40x, Offer-First Banner 4.11x — on a sixth of the money. Montage alone is 47.7% of spend across 118 ads. So August rebalances output to 45% image / 55% video. This is an output target: statics are cheaper to produce and Meta still allocates spend to whatever wins, so the rebalance costs bandwidth, not budget. Carousel ($389 across 19 ads) and GIF (2.94x on 0.6%) get real budgets for the first time.
Pick a row and a column to get a brief. Counts at the 150 floor; scale to your volume. Rows reconcile to the persona split, columns to the format split, and the grand total to the floor.
| Persona / lane | Primary awareness | Static | Video | Carousel | GIF | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Host / Social HostLEAN | Solution / Most Aware | 10 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 32 |
| GifterNORM | Product / Most Aware | 7 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| Foodie / Seafood Enthusiast | Unaware / Product | 4 | 10 | · | 1 | 15 |
| First TimerNORM | Problem Aware | 6 | 10 | · | 1 | 17 |
| Repeat Buyer / LoyalistLEAN | Most Aware | 7 | 7 | · | 2 | 16 |
| Splurger / Self-Treater | Solution Aware | 4 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 15 |
| Skeptic / Price Objector | Solution Aware | 4 | 4 | 1 | · | 9 |
| The Relocated DinerNEW | Problem / Solution | 4 | 4 | 1 | · | 9 |
| The Occasion MakerNEW | Solution / Product | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| The Vacation HouseNEW | Solution / Product | 2 | 6 | 1 | · | 9 |
| Total · 150 floor | Static 34% · Video 55% · Caro 5% · GIF 6% | 51 | 82 | 8 | 9 | 150 |
"Repeat Buyer × Static × 7" means seven statics split across the four reorder / loyalty / upgrade / win-back sub-lanes on the sub-persona slide. The Vacation House skews video — it is a place lane, and a static can't put you on the deck. The companion Creative Plan workbook breaks every cell into named concepts with briefs; this matrix is the summary view.
All five creative lanes, with 90-day performance context. 1) Find your card 2) read the % mix 3) multiply by your committed volume 4) split across the persona % (view 1) and name the sub-persona on every brief. The 150 is a floor — hold the proportions.
Host + football sub-lane ~26% · Gifter/birthday ~18% · statics rebuild (Lifestyle + Product + Offer-First) ~24% · First Timer message reset ~14% · the three new lanes ~18%.
The statics rebalance is yours. Lifestyle Image with Text (3.47x) and Product Image with Text (3.40x) beat UGC on a seventh of the spend — build the Product-Aware size/grade/count library and the Offer-First banner kit for Last Call. Then take the two lanes nobody has briefed: Relocated Diner table-math and the Counter Guy explainer.
Splurger/self-treat ~30% · Repeat Buyer reorder + loyalty ~26% · Occasion Maker date-night casting ~15% · Vacation House on-location ~15% · First Timer waste-fear ~14%.
The blended number is riding on April–May creators. MSGREENEBEAUTY and BLOGOFSALT post 43–48% thumbstop — the best hold in the account — so the talent works; the pipeline stopped. Re-cast against FMI's actual heavy buyer: 54% male, 51% Millennial/Gen Z, 40% multicultural. That is not who the current roster looks like.
Repeat Buyer reorder ~28% · Host game-day ~28% · Last Call urgency cutdowns ~22% · Skeptic price-anchor mashups ~22%.
The single best ad in the SCALING set is a Repeat Buyer mashup — rebuild that skeleton on loyalty and reorder-timing mechanics rather than July's shipping offer. Mashups are also the cheapest way to test the untried hook tactics — Price Anchor, Sensory Appeal, FOMO, Myth Busting all sit at zero spend. Four launches in the last month is not enough to hold an A.
Counter Guy explainer series ~40% · Vacation House on-location ~30% · Occasion Maker date-night ~30%.
Three concepts that need a real face and a real voice, not a template. Whitelisting puts them on a creator handle where the explainer format reads native — and the Counter Guy only works if the person on camera actually sounds like they know fish.
Vacation House hero film ~45% · Host end-of-summer feast ~30% · Foodie sensory/ASMR ~25%.
Share drops to 7%. The lane earns it back on one thing: the Vacation House hero — the box on the porch of a rented lake house, the table on the deck at golden hour. That is a location shoot, not a template job, and it is the asset the whole lane hangs off. Also own the sensory/ASMR gap: 3.98x on two ads, and the tag is otherwise empty.
The actionable layer — each move names a share, an angle, and an owner.
Labor Day fell on Sep 1 in 2025 and Sep 7 in 2026 — the latest date it can land. The calendar's Aug 28–Sep 3 flight goes dark before the holiday weekend even starts, and Klaviyo has Labor Day Monday itself at +10% YoY. Rename Aug 24–Sep 3 to Last Call for Summer, and run a separate Labor Day + CFB Week 1 flight Sep 3–7. Owner: Max + Anna, before briefs go out.
Cameron's leads with Chesapeake + True Blue certification; Crowd Cow leads with small family farms. AKC's entire provenance stack is $816 of $279K. Meanwhile 'Product of USA' influences 44% of seafood buyers vs 34% for sustainability claims — origin outsells virtue by ten points. Owner: BD statics + BDMash.
Anna's calendar already asked for this one. You can overnight restaurant-grade king crab to an address the customer doesn't live at — and Airbnb spent 2026 normalising exactly that behaviour, with Instacart in 25+ US cities and CookUnity bundles from $15/meal, while leaving the centrepiece completely unclaimed. Not one of Omaha Steaks, Wild Alaskan, Crowd Cow, Vital Choice or Goldbelly markets to renters. August is the window. Owner: BDProd hero film + Creator Direct.
The strongest macro signal in the research: people are dining out less often and spending more per visit, and seafood is the #3 category they cut. Nobody in the competitive set defends a price with math. Four at a steakhouse is $1,000–2,100; four at your table is one order. Owner: BD.
King crab is not a weeknight protein — it is the reason the night is a night. The account's own tags already prove the demand and starve it: Celebrators is the third-best audience at 4.72x, Special Occasion Elevation runs 3.44x, yet Couples gets 1.1% of spend across six ads and Dinner Planners gets nothing. Three sub-lanes: date night in, invent the occasion, the table of six. Owner: Insense + Creator Direct.
The best return in the account is sitting on two ads and $1,126, and Returning Customers, Loyalty Members, High Value Customers and Premium Food Buyers have no creative at all. Mechanics are loyalty points, grade upgrade and reorder timing — July's free-shipping offer was a one-time sale and does not carry into August. Owner: BDMash + Insense.
The account's two biggest spend lines are its two worst returns, and both are message problems rather than volume problems. Gifter's remaining share goes to the real August/September birthday density, and three points cross to the Occasion Maker. First Timer swaps Free Product for the two measured barriers — waste fear (55%) and selection anxiety (44%). Owner: BD.
Every static family beats UGC on efficiency while taking a sixth of the spend, and Montage alone is 47.7% of spend across 118 ads. This is an output share, not a spend share — Meta will still allocate budget to what wins. Also fund the two untested formats: Carousel has $389 across 19 ads and GIF returns 2.94x on scraps. Owner: BD.
The 150 floor is recommended against the Apr–Jul run-rate and August's calendar density. The % splits come from Motion 90-day performance and the ad-level Supermetrics history first, then deliberately corrected against outside category, competitive and audience research — because a model built only on the account's own data can only recommend more of what already ran.
| Output floor (recommended) | 150 launched ads |
| Run-rate · Apr–Jul avg / Jun / Jul | 143 / 172 / 154 (through 7/27) |
| Moments / Evergreen | 30% / 70% |
| Image / Video (output) | 45% / 55% |
| Persona architecture | 7 established + 3 net-new lanes |
| Creative vendors | BD · Insense · BDMash · BDProd · Creator Direct |
| 90d Meta spend / AOV / CPP | $284.6K · $731 · $233 |
| 90d ROAS | 2.46x in-platform · 3.14x Motion |
| ⚠ Labor Day 2026 | Mon Sept 7 — calendar flight ends Sep 3 |
| Motion · 90d SPEND + glossary | n=300 · $279.4K · persona / angle / format ROAS |
| Motion · age × gender | casting read · 25–34 F at 3.81x |
| Motion · competitor Inspo | Crowd Cow · Fulton · Cameron's (30 creatives) |
| Supermetrics · FB Ads, 13 months | volume chart · unique launched ad names |
| Supermetrics · FB Ads, 90d ad-level | 659 ads · vendor scorecard + cohorts |
| AKC calendar + Anna's list · 7/28 | moment windows · the seven-angle brief |
| FMI Power of Seafood 2025 / 2026 | heavy-buyer profile · waste + selection barriers |
| McKinsey · Black Box · OpenTable | restaurant substitution · occasion + group dining |
| Circana · BLS CPI Jun 2026 | frozen seafood +11.6% · category price pressure |
| Ohio State (Waste Mgmt) · AirDNA | STR food behaviour · rental demand + group size |
| NRF · Numerator · Klaviyo | Labor Day + game-day + back-to-school |
1. Motion's SCALING and HOOK insight types returned an identical 40-creative payload this pull, and 20 of those 40 show zero revenue — those rankings are directional only, so the persona and format calls lean on the 300-creative SPEND set. 2. The three net-new lanes have no first-party history by definition; their 16% combined share is a deliberate test budget, not a forecast. 3. The 2026/27 Bristol Bay quota isn't announced until October — don't brief creative that claims next season's numbers. 4. Supermetrics ad-level history starts Nov 2025. 5. Vendor classification is parsed from ad names, so the unlabeled bucket understates whoever actually built those ads.
THE ONE THING TO REMEMBER · These are proportions, not quotas — and hold the 14%. If August ends at 170 ads with no Relocated Diner, Occasion Maker or Vacation House in them, the model did nothing.